Looking Forward

Ian Barrett

Heading into 2022, some things that would be nice to see over the next twelve months, local or otherwise:

In terms of the pandemic, it would be nice to see clear published criteria for responses in terms of health regulations.  These could be based on lessons learned over the last two years, and give us more predictability in unpredictable times.  Not all of the scenarios outlined would be expected, but the guidelines should cover all possible situations.  Last summer no one thought lock downs would be looming the winter after our vaccine roll outs, as Quebec was one of the better provinces of a country with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.  Yet we now find ourselves again unsure of what our health officials will decide a few weeks from now.  Having such comprehensive guidelines available for schools would be especially helpful.  It’s extremely difficult for teachers to plan lessons with our current level of uncertainty.

Given our distinct yet critical goals of stopping the pandemic and protecting the environment, high-quality non-disposable face masks would be very useful.  As epidemiologists increasingly suggest that we use N95 masks in our daily activities when around others, the environmental impacts caused by daily use of disposable face masks will be huge.  In 2020, it’s estimated that more than 1.5 billion masks ended up in the world’s oceans.  A disposable mask will take centuries to break down.  They will become a major cause of micro-plastics that will significantly impact marine life for generations.  If affordable masks with innovative filters could provide protection equivalent to an N95 and last for even a week it would substantially reduce the environmental impacts of mask usage.

The economic fallout of potential lockdowns on small businesses will likely be substantial over the coming months.  Gatineau was criticized throughout 2020 and early 2021 for offering much less relief in terms of municipal tax deferrals than other municipalities.  Many business owners may be edging closer to bankruptcy as they reach the end of their personal savings and exhaust their credit options, so municipal tax relief may be more important than ever.

So far there has been a broad consensus among councillors in terms of the direction Gatineau will take over the next four years, but it will soon be time to hammer out the details.  There will certainly be differences of opinion among our representatives, but we all hope to see constructive debates as opposed to deadlock.  Gatineau has never had an administration with independents as mayor and a majority of councillors but with a municipal party positioning itself as the main opposition.  How this dynamic plays out will be critical in determining how agile and productive our city is as it faces the fallout from year three of the pandemic, and especially if those challenges are mixed together with natural disasters of the kind we’ve seen over the last 5 years.

Here’s hoping that 12 months from now we look back and see that we've had a happy, healthy and productive year.

Healthy Questioning 

Ian Barrett

Governments in general have good intentions in these difficult pandemic times.  Yet by asking appropriate questions about health regulations, we as citizens can help our government maximize the effectiveness of policies that so heavily impact our lives.

The curfew, a relatively uncommon policy in North America outside of Quebec, has attracted significant criticism over the past several weeks, especially following a scathing open letter signed by 13 Quebec academics and published on the open news source Pivot.

Unfortunately, there have been no significant studies on curfew effectiveness conducted following the curfew of last winter.  However, evidence suggests that Covid transmission occurs mainly in workplaces and schools, so the potential benefits of curfews may be slight.  Yet the negative impacts of a curfew are substantial.  Social workers and others on the front lines have spoken about impacts on mental health, levels of depression, and increases in domestic abuse.  There are also additional hardships for sex workers and the homeless.  

Something the provincial government has largely overlooked is that the National Capital Region provides an excellent case study on the effectiveness of curfews.  The region in many ways behaves as a single city.  Yet only a portion of it is subject to the curfew.  The curves for Covid cases on both sides of the river have been quite similar since the beginning of the pandemic.  The population of Ottawa is about 2.5 times larger than that of the Outaouais, with case numbers consistently two to three times higher in Ottawa, exactly what we would expect based solely on its larger population.  This was the case before, during and after the period of the first curfew from January to May of last year.  The only divergence was in the first part of January, as case counts in Outaouais since the introduction of the curfew surprisingly outpaced those in Ottawa.  This could have been due to limited testing capacity in Ottawa, which made case counts a less meaningful measure of the severity of transmission.  Regardless, the situation in the National Capital Region raises serious questions about the efficacy of curfews to fight Covid transmission.

Another Covid rule rarely seen outside of Quebec is the closing of stores on Sundays.  The idea is to avoid burnout of employees, but the negative consequences could also easily outweigh the positives.  On Saturdays, lines within or to enter grocery stores become much longer, potentially increasing overall transmission.  As well, in a time when we’re debating whether other recent laws encourage secularism or racism, mandating that everyone rest on the day associated with Christianity could be seen as contradictory.  There is a similar concern given that gatherings were allowed at Christmas but not at New Year’s, a much more important time for those who identify with religions other than Christianity, and who already feel targeted by the secularism laws.

Let’s all work together to make sure that our health regulations are as effective as possible, minimizing negative impacts wherever we can.  After all, it looks like we will be living with these rules for a while.

Teleworking (1) - Facts and Feelings

Ian Barrett

We’ve seen over the last several years that most tasks involving a computer do not need to be done at the office.  This is a major societal shift, yet it’s surprising how little research has been done on the topic.  Many times the debate over the benefits and drawbacks of remote work are based on little more than feelings and intuition. 

On the one side those in favour talk about how they’re still able to do just as much work from home as at the office.  They say that at home there are fewer distractions and background noise, allowing them to concentrate more.  They see technological advances like Zoom and Microsoft Teams allowing them to attend as many meetings as ever.  It can even be easier to follow what’s going on in large meetings, where in-person it can be difficult to follow the conversation on the other side of the room.  

Those who oppose working from home talk about shirking and laziness when workers aren’t being monitored, and less opportunities for mentoring, team building and developing a corporate culture.  Many of these people enjoy being at the office and seeing colleagues in person, and feel it’s a natural part of working culture in general.

The few objective studies available on this topic are usually based on surveys, with unsurprising results.  Remote employees claim that they’re more productive than ever, while managers tend to say that their teams are less productive based on general impressions.  Yet there are more evidence-based reports emerging that highlight the number of emails sent or comments received on an employee’s work.  Microsoft found that fully remote workers tend to be less productive per hour of work, while hybrid workers tend to have about the same level of productivity as those working on-site all of the time.  However, hybrid workers may be a bit less productive per hour, compensating by spending the time they used to require to commute to the office on work tasks instead.  

A Stanford study from 2015 already showed greater productivity when working from home when factoring in fewer sick days and breaks taken by remote workers.  It has also been shown that feelings towards their employer are far more impactful on worker engagement than whether they work at home or at the office, and an option to work from home can be motivating.  Working remotely also offers adjustable work schedules.  Some people work better in the early morning, others work better late at night.  Allowing people to work at their peak times lets them maximize their personal productivity.

Critically, when working from home we’ll need a profound shift in how managers approach their jobs.  They’ll no longer be able to focus primarily on checking that employees are at their desks and look busy, complemented by performance evaluations every couple of months.  To see if workers are able to keep up performance while outside the office, managers will need to shift to a task-based monitoring system paired with frequent individual check-ins.  

To make the most of teleworking, everyone has to evolve.

If newspapers are dying, why is the phone ringing non-stop?

Lily Ryan

Newspapers are dead, huh? Says who? The phone has been ringing off the hook here at the Bulletin!

Readers will notice an ad in this edition that explains how to subscribe to the newspaper. Until now, most people get their local paper free in the mail or in PubliSac (depending on where they live). The PubliSac is shutting down completely soon, and so newspapers are scrambling to find an affordable way to get the paper in the hands of readers.

Yes, changes are happening. True, fake news on social media is frustrating, even distressful. This means the appetite for local news borders on ravenous at the moment. We are increasing our printing numbers all the time, and still, we can’t keep enough papers on the shelves.

Knowing this, that readers ask for more, more, more print news all the time, it is very difficult to understand why anyone would say that newspapers are dead. Unless it is because they are repeating verbal garbage heard on tv or on the radio? Local newspapers are not mega-corporations with dividends to be paying out to shareholders. Profit margins can be very low and still, the team puts out a newspaper. This is because we believe in community. The folks at the Bulletin feel buoyed by community organizers who thank us for covering their event. When a business owner calls to say the ad worked too well, they need to take a break, the publicity department feels they’ve done their job right.

And the reverse is true too. Folks regularly ask why the city doesn’t advertise their art shows, the winter festivals, classes and all the other local activities that readers want to know about. At the Bulletin, we shrug our shoulders and say, ask your city councillor. The same is true of other levels of government but it is harder to explain for the local.

However, the very fact that readers are asking is enough to motivate the team to keep going.

Yes, PubliSac is closing, and a new distribution system is being set up for the Gatineau Bulletin. Call us! We’ll explain everything – how to subscribe, where to pick it up and how to add your neighbourhood store to our distribution list.

We aim to serve the readers, we want to cover the stories readers care about, and this, for the long term. Long live local news – in print!

Chaos at Town Hall

Ian Barrett

The resignation of Gatineau Mayor France Bélisle has dominated headlines for the last week.  Yet perhaps the more pressing issue is the chaos in which this leaves Gatineau’s municipal government.

It’s a sign of maturity when you realize that you’re simply not in a position to complete a job, and under certain circumstances it’s best to step aside.  Still, it’s a shame that Ms. Bélisle felt she was unable to complete her term.  Now, with only a year and half until the next round of regular elections, Gatineau will also face a special election for mayor, where the winner will only serve a bit more than a year before facing a second electoral contest.  This is truly a gruelling image for anyone thinking of running.  Plus, turnout for special elections is often anaemic, even by municipal election standards.  

It will also be difficult for any interested candidates to raise enough money to mount an effective campaign.  General estimates of the cost of a campaign for mayor are at least $200,000.  Here, whoever runs on the Action Gatineau ticket will have a huge advantage.  The party already has something of a war chest built up, as municipal parties receive regular funding from the provincial government, as well as having an established list of donors.  Whether potential donors for an independent candidate can be mobilized on short notice is anyone’s guess.  Ms. Bélisle has been very open about her frustration with Action Gatineau, but she has likely set in motion events that will be very favourable for the party.

It’s also of course worth looking at what brought us to this point.  Politics is at times something of a blood sport, and civility tends to fade as you move from the municipal to the provincial to the federal level.  Perhaps this is because municipal politics doesn’t enjoy so-called “parliamentary privilege”.  This is a legal immunity in the House of Commons and provincial legislatures, where you cannot be pursued in a court of law for slander, among other protections.  Or perhaps it’s just because people know each other better, are a smaller group, and have to work more closely together.  Municipal politics is far from being civil all of the time, but you rarely get the rowdy sessions that we see in federal or provincial Question Periods.  Yet in a system where representatives are looking to score political points with an eye to reelection, it seems unlikely for any level of government that we’ll ever see the courtesy shown in a typical boardroom.

Lastly and most worrying is harassment of elected officials.  This is getting worse by the year, with perhaps the most extreme case being that of former federal minister Catherine McKenna, dubbed by media, both social and traditional, as the “Climate Barbie”.  Such appalling treatment of any politician, and in particular when it's often reserved for women, should cause our society to seriously rethink how we view and treat our elected officials.  At the very least, it’s in the self-interest of other politicians to stop throwing kerosene on the fire.   

Missed Opportunities to Boost Downtown

Ian Barrett

Downtown areas of Gatineau and Ottawa need to transform.  More than a year after federal workers were mandated to come back to the office at least twice a week, our downtown areas are still far quieter than they were pre-Covid.  Eddy Street in Hull is particularly dire.  Yet there have been a number of lost chances to boost our city centres lately.

Given the nature of the National Capital Region, any revitalization will involve both municipal governments and the National Capital Commission. 

On the Hull side, Winterlude was held relatively far from the centre core of Hull, at the north end of the Jacques Cartier Park instead of the south, where it had been in years prior.  This year’s site had the advantage of offering tobogganing, but the festival had been quite successful in previous years when it was held in the south, and where it gave a boost to local businesses.

In Ottawa, supreme efforts were made to open the Rideau Canal to skating this year, despite the weather being less than cooperative.  Despite temperatures routinely above freezing, the National Capital Commission managed to open a section of the canal for at least a few days, from Bank Street to the Pretoria Bridge.  As welcome as this news was, would it have been possible to instead open a more central section that would have included the corner of Rideau Street and Colonel By Drive?  This would also have helped bring more people into the city centre to support local shops and restaurants.

The Ottawa municipal council recently commissioned a report on the closure to cars of Wellington Street in front of Parliament.  The findings were largely against the closure, talking about elevated stress for drivers, loss of parking, and further limitations on public transport if the artery isn’t left open to vehicles.  According to the report, traffic flow on the street has been slowly recovering since Wellington was reopened, and has almost reached the levels seen before the pandemic.  It did however discuss options for redesigning other streets should Wellington again be closed to traffic, with general cost estimates of up to $26M depending on how traffic grows over the coming years.

Yet is through-traffic along Wellington more likely to have a positive impact on Ottawa's core, or would a pedestrian path in front of the symbol of our democracy bring more people to spend time and money in the downtown area, particularly on weekends, when the city centre feels completely abandoned?  The success of a pedestrian option would of course depend on the details of any such plan.  During Wellington's closure in 2022 and the first part of 2023 it was quite underwhelming, with very little to attract visitors.  More imagination would certainly be required.  And any loss of parking could be addressed by converting some of the under-utilized office buildings of the neighbourhood to accommodate more public parking.

What’s clear is that the status quo for the region’s commercial centre isn’t working.  After more than four years, it’s time to become more creative.

Drivers: wake up

Lily Ryan

It looks like the city is aiming to reduce the number of ‘turn-right-on-red’ and other traffic easement habits. Why? Because bad drivers are giving everyone a bad name. Why is there such a problem with terrible drivers in Gatineau? Ask anyone and they have a recent story of being the victim of idiot drivers. Is there a solution to improving driving habits without slowing and stopping traffic?

The example of making a right turn on a red light is perfect to demonstrate how 15 seconds of good driving can change the traffic landscape in Gatineau. What does this driving maneuver take? The driver needs to make a full stop and look all around to verify there are no vehicles, cyclists, pedestrians, seniors in motor scooters, etc., coming through the intersection and from every direction. Seems simple enough, right? For reasons that astound everyone, some drivers create accidents in numbers high enough to flag city transit planners. The result? Plans to reduce the number of intersections where turning right on a red light is permitted.

The dedicated thinkers who volunteer with Gatineau’s Commission on Transport, Sustainable Transport and Safety discussed ways to improve infrastructure following a good session of combing through results from a recent study about safety in Gatineau’s traffic ways. The study included pictures of high-accident intersections and information about mobility.

All this energy, time and money is going into discussing how to improve city intersections when the true problem is you and me. We, collectively, as residents of Gatineau, have one thing to do in order to ensure the safety of our intersections, compared to the 14,202 collisions that occurred over the four years the study covered (the study covered 2015 – 2019). We need to drive better!

An information campaign that really hits home is a solid investment on the part of the city. Inspiring drivers to get their act together would go much further than dropping the number of intersections that permit turning right on a red light. This is much cheaper than boosting police presence or changing roadways. Police are needed doing real police work – and we are needed to be real drivers.

Lessons from Covid (1) - Being Prepared

Ian Barrett

As memories of Covid continue to fade into history, it’s worth asking what will happen when (and not if) the next pandemic strikes.

Luc Boileau, the director of public health policy for Québec, recently gave an interview to the CBC where he praised the province’s performance during the Covid pandemic, and stated that Québec is ready to face future health emergencies.  He cited a comprehensive plan for viral pandemics that will be published in the near future, as well as far better stocks of N95 masks and surgical gloves.  He also pointed to improved autonomy for the province in manufacturing key medical equipment, something that should avoid shortages like those seen in 2020 and 2021.

Although this is all good news, there haven’t been major independent studies done on the effectiveness of many of the approaches governments took during the pandemic.  A number of policies differed substantially across provinces, meaning that mistakes were made, since an approach either works or it doesn’t.  This is notably the case with curfews and vaccine passports, as well as approaches to school closures.

The latter is particularly critical.  A study has recently been released in the U.S. by Monitoring the Future and the Pew Research Centre, showing attitudes of those now in their early twenties towards government, the media, and life in general.  The results are extremely worrying.  Over a third of respondents said they had hardly any confidence in government, and even more shockingly, over half said they had hardly any confidence in traditional media.  This does not bode well for traditional media’s financial future.  They’re also far more likely than Millennials at the same age to say that it’s hard to have hope for the world or to see a purpose to life.  

This was of course the generation that was hit with lockdowns just as they were getting ready to enter adulthood and build their lives.  We’re only starting to get an idea of the long term psychological and economic burdens they’ll have to bear for years to come.  Was there a more efficient way to reduce these impacts?  How effective were school closures at reducing death rates caused by Covid?  If we notice that a particular group such as those with pre-existing health conditions are far more at risk during future pandemics, could we target our efforts more towards those people?  Would we have had better outcomes in 2020 and 2021if we had put more resources into creating secure environments for the elderly, the group that was by far the hardest hit by Covid?

Mr. Boileau’s accolades for the performance of Québec during the pandemic should be somewhat tempered.  Despite tremendous efforts by those on the front lines, Québec’s mortality rate from Covid was almost twice that of Ontario and of Canada as a whole.  The province’s handling of nursing homes was particularly questionable.  Learning from history in addition to focusing on what went right would show we’re positioning ourselves as best we can for the uncertainties of the future.

Image and the Municipal Election

Ian Barrett

The special election for mayor is picking up speed.  Yet even during regular municipal elections, voter turnout rarely exceeds about a third.  During a special election in the summer turnout may not even be a quarter of eligible voters.  People are less likely to vote when the weather is nice.  Hence every vote counts more than ever.

Each candidate brings quite a different profile to this year’s contest.  Political experience is a good example.  At the high end, there’s Yves Ducharme, who in addition to having been Mayor of Gatineau from 2001 to 2004 was also Mayor of Hull for nearly ten years before amalgamations in the early 2000s.  This experience would certainly serve him well in terms of knowing how to work the various levers of municipal government.  However, as with all political experience, his also comes with some baggage.  Residents were quite unsatisfied with Mr. Ducharme’s performance as mayor heading into the elections of 2004.  His opponent won with more than twice as many votes.  One of the complaints being voiced at the time was that he was too confrontational and that he was absent from the city too often as he arranged numerous trips as part of his mandate.  Regardless of whether these opinions were justified, residents complained that the operations of the city had become too bumpy.  Given that turnout in municipal elections tends to tilt towards older age groups, many of those who will cast a ballot in June likely already have made up their minds about Mr. Ducharme, either positive or negative.

Another candidate bringing substantial experience to the campaign is the leader of Action Gatineau, Maude Marquis-Bissonnette.  A councillor for 4 years from 2017 to 2021, she ran for mayor in the last campaign, finishing in second place with about 5 points less than the winner.  She’s surely learned from that run, and also has the organization of Gatineau’s only political party behind her.  Yet despite her experience, she is quite youthful, which may present challenges in convincing older voters that she’s up to the task.  This is of course a type of discrimination, but as many politicians know, campaigns can be very superficial events.  Witness the proliferation of campaign signs and posters that now line our streets.  They present very little substantive content, and instead simply focus on the candidate’s picture.  Ms. Marquis-Bissonnette will need to show voters that she’s seasoned enough to control what goes on at City Hall.

The other candidates are far less known to voters.  Daniel Feeny was the communications director for France Belisle, whose unexpected resignation set off the current campaign in the first place.  He’ll need to appeal to Ms. Belisle’s voters while also showing that he can differentiate himself enough from the last administration to overcome the obstacles that led Ms. Belisle to step down.  The major challenge for the other four candidates will be simply achieving name recognition.  More on these candidates in this column in the weeks to come.

Predicting the Weather

Ian Barrett

Weather forecasts are the type of news that people tend to check more than anything else.  Everyone wants to know if it will rain later in the day.  Yet forecasts are also often wrong, especially when it comes to predicting rain or snow.  Meteorologists are quite clear up front about the possibility for error - when it comes to precipitation, they talk about probabilities, not certainty.  Predicting a 30% chance of rain (i.e. likely dry weather) means they expect to be wrong one time in three.  And this is assuming that the likelihoods they publish are even accurate to start with. 

Yet given modern technological advances, it’s surprising that people are willing to put up with so much uncertainty.  Airlines would love it if flyers were so forgiving of errors on their parts.  Yet any airline that cancels a flight one time in three is unlikely to last the year.

In the end, weather forecasts are based on models that rely on large amounts of data.  This information is usually collected via ships, balloons and satellites, in addition to weather stations, often located near airports.

Forecasts have certainly improved over the decades.  According to the National Weather Service in the U.S., today’s two day forecast for heavy rain is as accurate as the same day forecast was thirty years ago.

Yet some forecasts are better than others.  European weather forecasting has consistently been shown to be more accurate than American versions.  The reason is simple - the Europeans use a better simulation system with more data.  They also use more powerful computing hardware.  In other words, the Europeans have invested more money to have higher quality forecasting.

In Canada, making accurate weather forecasts is more challenging than in other parts of the world.  Weather systems across the country are all interconnected, including those in the sparsely populated north.  Yet it’s more difficult and expensive to collect weather data in regions that are far from populated areas.  Canada’a weather stations are mostly concentrated in southern regions of the country, meaning that data quality farther north is more sparse and less detailed.  The U.S. and Europe have the advantage of denser populations, making it easier to collect data by leveraging pre-existing infrastructure like airports.

Still, improving our weather predictions is completely possible.  It just takes a push within society, and people showing that more accurate forecasts are important to them.  It’s certainly nice to be able to better plan an outdoor event, but the benefits are even more tangible for those running construction projects.  And most importantly of all, being able to better predict hurricanes and other extreme weather events would save lives.  Although Gatineau and Ottawa don’t have to face major tropical storms, we’ve been lucky that there have thus far not been any deaths from tornadoes and extreme winds.  Coastal regions are far more at risk.  Having a better handle on extreme weather conditions would give people more time to prepare, whether it’s securing their property or escaping from harm’s way.  This would certainly be money well spent.

Ian Barrett

Life on the Street

Ian Barrett

Homelessness and drug abuse continue to surge in our downtown regions.  The area around the Byward Market is experiencing a crisis like never before.  Hull is also seeing a significant increase in the number of “tent cities”, especially close to the Ruisseau de la Brasserie.

The high cost of housing is often blamed for this, and it is certainly a major factor.  There’s no question that we need to build more housing, and to do so in strategic locations.  Old Hull is in major need of development, as large areas of it are still filled with dilapidated houses that, judging from the number that have burned out, are significant fire hazards.  Subsidized housing is certainly essential in the short term, as well as more apartments in general to reduce leverage that landlords have to raise rent prices.

A major obstacle to building more housing is labour shortages in the construction industry.  With many of the workers in this field set to retire in the coming years, this problem will only get worse.  We’ll need to rely on immigration to fill this skills gap, and adjust our immigration system accordingly.

Yet there’s another major factor at play in the crisis of homelessness - the severity of a drug epidemic facing countries all over the world.  Opioids like fentanyl are getting far more addictive each year, as nefarious innovations in chemistry make these drugs increasingly powerful.  And all signs point towards this trend continuing in the future.  As more people get hopelessly hooked on such powerful narcotics, it’s inevitable that they’ll end up living on the streets, as the drugs ravage both their bodies and minds.

The consequence is people barely holding on, living on the fringes of society, and dying on the streets.  King Edward Street in Ottawa feels like it’s under siege, littered with syringes and people having psychotic episodes, many times due to the drugs they’re taking, and with no help available.  The Chinese embassy’s office on that street has been occupied by the homeless, who have set up a camp on the roof of its garage.  Residents are complaining about being afraid to go outside their doors at night.  The shelters and other service centres concentrated in the area are completely overwhelmed, as are the police.

To address this huge challenge, we’ll need to look at housing and drug abuse as two factors contributing to the same crisis.

Coming up with specific solutions is a hugely complex problem.  We need to develop a pharmaceutical drug to reduce the symptoms of withdrawals.  This will not be easy, but as was demonstrated during the race for a Covid vaccine, with enough will, fast scientific progress is possible.  We also could discuss offering alternative treatment centres to those suffering from addiction, for instance in more rural areas.  Being treated in areas where drug use is rampant makes recovery that much more challenging for those seeking a way out.  Being removed from such influences could be quite appealing, at least to those who are truly looking to save themselves.  

Ian Barrett

Hollywood and Old Men

Ian Barrett

Hollywood has never tried to be a true reflection of our societies and cultures.  It’s an escape, a way to enjoy a fanciful story for a few hours.  Although the shift to superhero movies has made this ever more true, it was always the case.

New trends in movies have made it harder for actors to establish themselves as superstars.  These days people go to the movies to see characters, as opposed to the star of the film.  Given that many of these characters wear masks, it makes it even harder for the leading actors to make a deep connection with the audience.

That’s not to say that there are no more names that draw large audiences.  It’s just that almost all of these actors made their names in the 20th century, and are now nearing or well past the age when most people retire.  This summer’s movie selection has shown this very clearly.  The biggest productions starred 60 year old Tom Cruise and 80 year old Harrison Ford.  Other seniors headlining major movies included Denzel Washington, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Pierce Brosnan.  Although the headline-grabbing leading man still exists, he is aging.

It’s also very accurate to describe these people as leading men.  Hollywood has always had a blatant double standard when it comes to men versus women.  The former become mature and distinguished, while the latter become yesterday’s news.  As the distinguished push 80, the hypocrisy is now a bit galling.  We often speak of gender equality, yet our entertainment industry still expects women to have youthful sex appeal, with the only option for staying in the spotlight being to undergo extensive plastic surgery.  

Yet the world created by Hollywood is not only devoid of older women.  Also missing are body types that fall outside of the mold they promote as attractive.  Seeing a movie set in New York gives a very different image of the city compared to what you'd see walking around its actual streets.  And this isn’t just limited to action movies, which are easily dismissible as shallow.  It extends into independent films as well, those that pride themselves on their creativity and artistic value.  

Ethnic minorities are faring better than they used to in terms of roles in the film industry, but they’re still far from a representation equal to their proportions in our society as a whole.  Yet the progress made on this front shows that change is indeed possible.  

In the end, Hollywood, like most industries, will follow the money.  As long as audiences turn out in sufficient numbers to take in the usual offerings, little will change.  Movies and television series are meant to be a relief from daily struggles and headaches, and if they deliver on this, they’re still serving their main purpose.  Yet we shouldn’t underestimate the potential for psychological damage that their warped visions of society present.  In particular to women, who may develop an irrational fear of aging, a risk that men aren’t as likely to run.

Ian Barrett

Trusting Hydro Québec

Ian Barrett

Aylmer recently suffered yet another major wind storm, which ripped down a number of streets in the older part of the city, uprooting or snapping large trees along Foran and Broad street, among several others.

Extreme weather events are becoming very common, and this was the second time this year that residents were without power for a period of several days.  The wind damage was extensive, but many residents were left wondering if we’re properly prepared for such situations in the future.

Old growth trees make older parts of Aylmer quite beautiful, lining our streets and giving us welcome shade in our backyards.  Yet many of these trees lean heavily on power lines.  Even for Hydro Québec, it’s difficult to judge the extent of the risks caused by branches, since most power lines run out of sight through people’s backyards instead of along the streets.  This makes our streets much prettier and less cluttered, but when unkempt branches take out a main power line in someone’s backyard it can leave hundreds of neighbours in the dark.

The obvious solution to this is more maintenance.  At a minimum, Hydro Québec should come and remove any branches that residents notice are dangerously close to power lines on their property.  Yet they have a policy of only pruning a particular yard once every four to six years.  Concerned citizens are told that if they want branches removed more often, they have to contact a private contractor and foot the bill themselves.  Even if some virtuous members of our community do so, should a branch fall in one of their neighbours’ yards they could still find themselves in the dark plus feeling extremely frustrated.

Although trimming branches wouldn’t have saved the sections of power lines taken out by fallen trees in late July, it would surely have lightened the workload of the employees striving to get our power restored, and shortened the length of the power interruption.

Yet the response of Hydro Québec was frustrating on many other levels as well.  They had said that over 20 teams had been mobilized to restore power, yet by the end of the second day after the storm and with over 200 homes in a single grid still waiting for their electricity to come back on, only a single team was working.  It took 12 more hours for those 200 homes to get their lights back on.

Lastly, an important part of Quebec’s green strategy is to get more homes to switch from heating their homes with natural gas to using electricity.  With so many power interruptions and with them lasting for so long, this is becoming a tough sell.  At least with natural gas our homes won’t freeze during the next mid-winter ice storm, and we’ll be able to enjoy a hot shower even if we won’t have a warm dinner.  Hydro Québec will have to earn our trust for us to become so dependent on them.  At the very least, we should all give them a call to let them know they need to do better.  Their number is (888) 385-7252.

Ian Barrett

Urbanization Plan for the Long Term

Ian Barrett

Gatineau has become the most expensive city in Quebec in terms of renting an apartment.  At the beginning of 2023 it cost $1,721 on average to rent a place with a single bedroom, and $1,831 for two bedrooms, according to Rentals.ca.  With an average gross salary of about $54,000 in the region, this is about 40% of before-tax income, and almost two-thirds of take-home income.  To be in a stable financial position your rent shouldn’t exceed a third of your after-tax income.

Obviously, low income households find themselves in excruciating situations, and will likely be priced out of the region.  But the pain extends even to those who are lucky enough to have reasonably paying jobs.

One of the main reasons for Gatineau’s exceptionally high rental costs is its low vacancy rate.  The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation found that at the beginning of 2023 the percentage of apartments that were available to rent in Gatineau had fallen from 1.1% to 0.8%.  This compares with 2.1% for Ottawa, and is far lower than the 3% to 5% vacancy rates needed for a healthy rental market.

With such a shortage of housing, Gatineau finds itself with competing priorities that are very hard to reconcile.  

On the one hand, increasing the supply of housing, and especially rental units, is critical.  Some good news on this front is that developers seem to have switched from building condo units to instead focusing on rental complexes.  

On the other hand, infrastructure is stretched very thin, and residents are understandably uncomfortable to see yet more housing units being built in their neighbourhoods, with roads already jammed and schools bursting at the seams.

A first step should be further developing Old Hull.  There are a number of dilapidated or outright fire-ravaged buildings decaying in the core of the city, and implementing an empty house tax to force owners to make use of their properties would help to move things in the right direction.  Once Old Hull has reached its full potential, something not seen in many decades, it would be easier to justify development farther out in places like Aylmer.  This would also give the city time to develop the infrastructure needed to support a greater number of residents.

The city also needs to articulate a clear urbanization plan for the long term.  Action Gatineau has proposed a moratorium on new construction in the west of Gatineau until infrastructure is adequate.  They have also cited an IRIS study saying that Gatineau’s needs aren’t for rental units in general, but for low-rent subsidized units.  Given the rock-bottom vacancy rates and sky high costs of renting in Gatineau, they’ll need to give clear explanations of how their positions make sense.  They’ll also need to explain why they’ve now taken a position which goes so much against their approach of quickly developing the west of Gatineau during the eight years they held the mayor’s office.  Otherwise, their position could be seen as largely political, and given their influence, wouldn’t help us towards a coherent long term plan for the city.

Ian Barrett

Houses vs. Condos

Ian Barrett

As a society, we find ourselves at a crossroads.  On the one hand, we’re more aware than ever of our responsibility to live sustainably, not just in terms of reducing green house gases, but also creating less garbage and maintaining natural environments, among many other concerns.  On the other, improvements in productivity over the last several decades have allowed us to consume more than ever, to fly far more often, and to drive ever bigger cars.  Generally the economy has followed what consumers want, with environmental concerns taking a back seat.

There’s one area where policy makers and developers have quietly diverged from what people are looking for, however - housing.  And it’s a global phenomenon.  The speed of zoning to create housing projects has resulted in new home construction lagging far behind population growth in most Western cities, causing home prices to sky rocket.  And those being built tend to be condos, despite many younger families yearning for single-family homes with a back yard where they can more comfortably raise a family.

The reasons for the preference for condos by cities and developers are well known.  The cost per unit is obviously less than that of a single-family dwelling.  Yet the sale price for the entire development is much higher.  And cities collect more in total taxes from areas made up of condos than those of single family homes.

Yet in an age when the auto industry still encourages people to drive large vehicles and airlines push potential customers to take short vacations in the Caribbean, is it fair that we end up in a society where only the very well off can afford a spacious home with a back yard?  In some cities around the world this is inevitable, as space is in very short supply.  Here in Canada, however, this is hardly the case.

Building new houses will necessarily mean the destruction of natural environments.  Sadly, this is likely the price to pay for a growing population that will support our social safety nets in the decades to come.  We will also have to find ways to reduce the costs of building these new homes.  There’s a clear shortage of labour for less skilled positions in construction that causes costs to soar.  One solution would be partially shifting the immigration system, currently geared towards high-skilled applicants, to allow more people to come to Canada to build our homes as well.  

Modern technology offers us more agility than ever, especially in terms of telework.  Enabling more young families to move to villages where houses are cheaper would also help create a fairer society for future generations, giving them access to the same amount of space as was available to their parents and grandparents.

The challenge that we face is that current homeowners vote, which is clearly not the case for those who have been kept out of a community by the high prices of housing.  So housing concerns tend to be lower on the political agenda.  The status quo, although deeply unfair, will be hard to change.

Ian Barrett

Remote Work (1)

Ian Barrett

Telework has again been a topic of conversation these last few weeks.  On the one hand, a number of unions have been fighting to have more protections against employers arbitrarily denying an employee’s telework request.  On the other, major employers like the Royal Bank of Canada have been speaking out against telework, saying that they feel employees are more productive in an office setting.

It’s been over three years since the Covid lockdowns caused widespread closure of offices, and since then some studies on the effectiveness of telework have emerged.  Many limited themselves to comparing working full time from the office to working completely remotely.  So the lessons aren’t easily applied to the current trend of hybrid proposals, where employees work about half their time from the office.  Still, there are a few points that are applicable across the board.

A study from the University of Stanford shows higher productivity working from home.  Yet this is mostly from surveying employees, who may be less likely to report lags in productivity when working remotely.  A study from Harvard and the National Bureau of Economic Research found that when employees work from home they’re likely to spend the hours that they would have lost commuting on work instead, thereby upping productivity.  Employees also take fewer sick days when working from home.  When they have a flexible schedule they’re also less likely to take time off to run errands, instead making up the hours before or after their appointments.  This again increases productivity in a measurable way.  Flexible schedules also allow employees to take full advantage of bursts in energy and creativity.

Another factor in favour of working from home is a lower attrition rate.  When employees are forced back to the office they may well look for opportunities elsewhere.  Companies that offer the option to work remotely are in a good position to tempt employees away from competitors.  Having to frequently train new employees is a drag on productivity as it takes recent arrivals time to get up to speed on how to do their tasks.

Those in favour of hybrid working arrangements point to opportunities for mentoring and team building.  These are certainly valid points.  Yet the question becomes how easily employees can be mentored when their coworkers only come into the office a few days per week.  Time will need to be taken to schedule days at the office in such a way that the experienced employees are present at the same time as the junior colleagues they could mentor.  If care isn’t put into scheduling, and if sufficient mentoring doesn’t occur to justify coming into the office, employees could become frustrated and not see the point of working on site at all.

Past studies found reduced productivity working remotely because technology wasn’t yet available to streamline working from home.  Since then, we’ve seen the continued expansion of high speed internet coupled with more reliable software options like Zoom and Microsoft Teams.  These have largely solved technological limitations that were holding back productivity from outside the office.

Ian Barrett

The High Cost of Living

Ian Barrett

Inflation has long been a major concern for society, not only because of the obvious impacts it has on people’s well being, but also because of other distortionary impacts that are less direct. 

One such impact that we see from inflation is more discontent from workers as wages fail to keep pace with rising prices.  The last time that we saw long periods of high inflation was in the 1970s and the first part of the 1980s, and this coincided with periods of frequent strikes by a number of unions.  Workers get frustrated as their paychecks are stretched thinner each month.  Yet economists and pundits in the media often say that giving raises will only fuel inflation even further, so employers must toe the line and avoid giving wage hikes to workers that would then be passed on as price increases to consumers.

However, it’s also worth looking at what’s happening when employees’ raises significantly lag price increases.  If price increases are instead being used to increase profit margins, we are instead witnessing an increase in inequality.  And if workers obtain raises that are still modest enough to only cut into a portion of those increased profits, the money to fund those raises doesn’t need to come from price increases at all.

Years of high inflation in food and housing that aren’t accompanied by enough wage gains can leave us with ever greater inequality, which in turn leads to more pressure on social assistance programs such as subsidized housing and food banks.  And again, we’ll likely face additional strikes from workers who are fortunate enough to belong to a union.  Workers who are unrepresented and lack job security will mostly suffer in silence, with their only option to avoid becoming poorer being to switch jobs and work elsewhere.

In terms of public finances, different levels of government can face vastly different challenges.  Since early 2022, annual price increases have averaged anywhere from 5% to 8%, while salary increases were estimated to be a bit more than 4%.  Since the federal and provincial governments collect most of their revenue as percentages of salaries and purchases via income and sales taxes, these revenues tend to rise with inflation, reducing its impacts on public finances.  Municipal revenue is quite a different story, though.  Municipal tax increases are set each year.  In years of low inflation they generally tend to increase a bit faster than prices.  When inflation and increases in costs are high, however, it can be a very different story.  Increasing property taxes by 8% would be a very tough sell politically.

Moreover, newer residents will bear a higher tax burden than people who have been in their houses for years.  Valuations on properties don’t tend to change substantially until they’re sold, and usually match the selling price.  When house prices have been rising quickly, as in the last several years, a new resident could see their home valued at nearly twice their neighbour, even though the houses are very similar.  And they will then see a much higher property tax bill each year.

Ian Barrett

Ending Child Labour in Quebec

Ian Barrett

Child labour became illegal in Quebec last month.  Many people are shocked when they realize that until March 2023 there was no minimum age for a child to work in this province.  All that was required was parental consent, and even that rule was at times not enforced.

The Government of Quebec recently passed a law setting age 14 as the minimum to hold down a job, with exceptions for tasks long considered appropriate for younger children such as babysitting, mowing the lawn and acting.  Kids 14 to 16 will be restricted to at most 17 hours of work a week, with no more than 10 of those during the week.  This is certainly excellent news, as it will nip in the bud a worrying increase in the number of young children working at restaurants and small stores.  The former had come to depend on children for almost 0.5% of its workforce, and labour shortages had been pushing that number higher.  Given that the restaurant industry employs more than 180,000 people in Quebec, this translates to almost 1,000 children working as waiters or in kitchens.  Child labour should certainly not be part of the solution to a tight job market for employers.

Small businesses with under 10 employees can continue to receive exemptions, with the idea that kids can work at their family’s business.  This particular exception will need to be closely monitored and possibly updated if exploitation at small businesses occurs.  Bringing children on as regular employees shouldn't be necessary if the business can already afford 8 or 9 other employees.  The philosophy of the law is of a child helping out his or her parents selling produce at a local market or doing chores around the farm.  Unfortunately, a lobbying group called l’Association des détaillants en alimentation du Québec plans to argue the opposite, that stores even bigger than 10 employees should be able to hire minors, so that children of the owners of larger grocery stores can be employed by their parents.  This clearly misses the point - if a business can afford to hire more than a handful of people, it can afford to ensure that those people are adults.  Children can certainly shadow their parents around their stores, big or small, and help out in an informal way.  But a child’s first priority should be doing well at school, followed by simply having fun.

Critical to the success of the new law is making sure that it’s properly enforced.  If even lax laws like requiring parental permission for children to work weren’t consistently enforced in the past, application of this new law can’t be taken for granted.  Plus, the penalties for violations, at $12,000 for a repeat offender, may sound high.  Yet relative to payroll expenses these are not as dissuading as they could be, especially if continuing to employ children allows a business to up its revenue.

Regardless, this new law is a big step in the right direction, and finally brings Quebec in line with the rest of Canada in discouraging child labour. 

Ian Barrett

Public Trust (1)

Ian Barrett

Both in Canada and globally, trust in institutions is lower than ever.  According to various surveys from Ipsos and Reuters, less than half of Canadians have high levels of trust in government or media, showing marked decreases over the last several years.  Although this is a global phenomenon, the idea that over half the population has largely tuned out of society at large is quite concerning.

There is of course no single reason for this erosion of trust, but a major factor has been errors in messaging.  It’s impossible to be right all of the time, and even the most reputable sources will sometimes make mistakes.  The key is owning up to these errors.  Too often as people, we have the tendency to practice out of sight, out of mind, and government and media at times reflect this.  Our institutions often convince themselves that their mistakes have quickly been forgotten.  Yet this is seldom the case.  Covid laid bare how fragile our understanding of breaking events can be.  We went from saying that masks were not useful for the general public to a message that masks provided such good protection that going out in public when sick is okay as long as you wear a face covering.  The provincial government of Quebec’s current guidelines even state that you only need to stay home when you have a fever.  With a sore throat or cough, the guidelines are simply that when going out you should wear a mask, with no advice to stay home at all.  Meanwhile, Ontario instructs people to stay home in general when they are sick.  On the other hand, Ontario recommends a Covid vaccine booster every six months while Quebec recommends ongoing boosters only for the immunocompromised or those who have never previously had Covid, which at this point is quite a small segment of the population.

Harmonizing messages is important, as is simply saying when we are unsure of what is best in a given situation.  The media should also be clear when evidence is not yet available.  On the topic of Covid vaccines, the original message was that everyone getting two doses would end the pandemic.  After it became apparent that this was not accurate, a similar case was made for a third dose.  Despite most traditional vaccine testing periods being at least two years, the urgency of Covid meant that society had little choice but to move fast.  Now, several years in, we’ve seen that at least the first couple of doses substantially reduce hospitalizations in vulnerable groups, something certainly worth celebrating.  But because what was called authoritative messaging around Covid vaccines changed so often over the last few years, vaccine hesitancy in general is on the rise.  There are regions in Canada and the U.S. where standard vaccination rates have fallen below 80%, far below the level needed for herd immunity.  And as a consequence, we’re now seeing outbreaks of measles, mumps, and most worrying of all, polio, diseases that we’d long since stopped associating with developed countries.

Ian Barrett

Fentanyl: naloxone kits needed everywhere

Ian Barrett

Opioid deaths are a massive problem across the world.  Approximately 20 Canadians die of opioid overdoses each day, more than half the rate of Covid.  Even more worryingly, opioid deaths have been steadily increasing for years, as these chemicals become ever more potent and addictive.

Fentanyl is far more powerful and difficult to control than yesterday’s heroin.  Synthetic opioids are similar or identical to prescription drugs.  In fact, until about four years ago drug users were able to order fentanyl and other powerful narcotics through the mail directly from China, home to the world’s second largest pharmaceutical industry.  Making these drugs illegal was extremely difficult, as a slight change to the chemical composition allowed the sellers to brand it as an entirely new drug, one that was not on western governments’ lists of controlled substances.  The Chinese government had been very slow to increase oversight of drug manufacturing, fearing that doing so would hamper their very profitable pharmaceutical sector.  Yet following intense diplomatic pressure applied by the U.S., China finally cracked down on all Fentanyl-class drugs in 2019.  Sadly, this simply resulted in Chinese labs switching to exporting precursors and components of fentanyl to Mexican drug cartels, who took over the task of creating the finished product.  Such ingredients are also used in legal pharmaceutical products, and hence are much harder to crack down on.

Adding to the difficulties of reducing the global narcotics trade, Chinese counternarcotics cooperation with western nations has become closely tied to trade in general.  As Chinese diplomatic relationships with the U.S. and its allies have become strained, joint law enforcement activities have essentially ground to halt.  Politics has sadly become deeply intertwined with the enforcement of global anti-narcotics laws.  Western countries point the blame for the opioid crisis on Chinese supply, while China blames Western demand.  Moreover, sophisticated laboratory networks for producing components of fentanyl have now formed in India, Nigeria and South Africa, among other countries.

The outcomes of these policing stalemates are all too clear - seeing young people roaming the streets looking like little more than zombies, with hard crusty or blue patches all over their skin and living on borrowed time.  Vancouver is at the forefront of this disaster, but Ottawa and Gatineau are hardly immune.  Taking a walk around the Glebe is enough to see the opioid crisis’ devastation.  Depressingly, there is no end in sight, as chemical “innovations” mean that there’s a steady stream of slightly different and ever more potent drugs for law enforcement officials to chase after.  And given that trace amounts of these powdered drugs can have staggering effects, it’s becoming ever harder to protect our teenage children from any number of ways they can be contaminated.  Overdose stories span all classes, from poorest to richest.  Improving law enforcement and treatment for overdoses is extremely important, but in the end the most effective tool we have is probably making our children understand how dangerous the world into which they’re entering has become.  And that it’s unlikely to get better.

Ian Barrett

Child Labour in Canada

Ian Barrett

We’ve long heard about the horrors of child labour, usually associated with poorer regions of the world - children slaving away in factories for very low wages.  Yet it's shocking to realize that 12 year olds can legally work in many businesses in Canada.  Provinces have different rules in place, with Quebec being among the most permissive in Canada, not specifying a minimum age to hold a job at all.

Most of us don’t notice that child labour is legal in our own neighbourhoods, since most young people don’t take a first job until they’re at least 16.  Certain low stress jobs have long been associated with younger children, seen as ways to gently transition into the labour market.  Babysitting, delivering newspapers, and mowing the lawn are traditional examples.  Yet these are either casual or require little time commitment, providing ways for kids to learn about earning, saving and spending money.  

The idea that children could find themselves with adult responsibilities such as dealing with angry customers as a cashier or waiter is something else entirely.  Children are of course much more vulnerable to exploitation, and are unlikely to understand their rights.  Plus, school combined with homework is very much a full time task.  Adding hours of extra paid work to their schedules means that kids have precious little time to enjoy being a child, discovering what they truly like to do in life, and building the social skills necessary to have a happy and fulfilling adulthood.  

The idea that certain businesses, particularly restaurants, have structured themselves around hiring children is also quite concerning.  It’s hard to get a handle on exactly how common this problem is, as workers aged 14 to 18 are often lumped together in public records on employment.  However, there’s a substantial difference in the level of maturity of an 18 year old compared to a 14 year old.  And businesses with a majority of employees underage usually means that adults are unwilling to take on that work, either because of low pay or the working environment itself.  These hardly seem like the sorts of places where children should come of age.  Even Walmart, a company not usually associated with social justice campaigns, requires employees to be at least 16 years old.  The idea that children should at a minimum be old enough to drive before attempting to hold down a steady job is certainly reasonable.

Legislation in this area should be quite natural and easy.  We already have generous child benefit payments in place so that children shouldn’t need to work.  Steady traditional jobs that target children under 16 need to be rethought.  They either require higher pay or better working conditions to entice older workers to take them up.  Parents could continue to involve their children in their family businesses, so long as it’s a learning experience and not overly burdensome to the point of making a child less focused on school.  

After decades of criticizing developing countries for allowing children to spend their childhoods working, we should certainly ensure that such situations don’t continue to happen here.

Ian Barrett

Fraud Protection

Ian Barrett

Fraudsters are becoming increasingly sophisticated, as are measures to counter them.  Whereas we used to rely mostly on passwords, the last couple of years have seen a shift to security linked to a phone number or device, commonly referred to as two-stage authentication. 

Yet despite the focus on protecting our online accounts, comparatively little attention is paid to how to protect our identities when our personal information such as social insurance numbers are stolen.  One of the most notorious examples of this was Desjardins.  In 2019 social insurance numbers and full personal details of over 4,000,000 Quebecers were stolen by a rogue employee, who apparently copied the data onto a USB device.  After literally walking out the door with this information, he proceeded to attempt to sell it on the dark web.  How such personal information could so easily be stolen is shocking, as is the fact that charges have yet to be laid against anyone, despite the likely identity of the thief being known.  Said person was fired by Desjardins, and two vice presidents resigned, although the president at that time was reelected later that year and continues in his role to this day.

All the personal information of a large majority of Quebecers necessary for identity theft continues to circulate widely on the darknet.  Desjardins offered complimentary credit monitoring for those impacted by the leak.  This same service is offered at a monthly fee of ten to forty dollars per month by both of the credit bureaus in Canada, Equifax and TransUnion.  You receive alerts when a new account is opened in your name or when a late payment is associated with your credit score.  But most major banks let you see this same information for free when you log in to online banking, so by investing a minute or two of your time per week you achieve the same results.  Yet this is likely to be too little too late - you see the damage after it’s already done.

However, in February Quebec became the first province in Canada to require credit bureaus to offer a proactive solution - allowing you to freeze your profile with them, refusing to let lenders check your credit score until you choose to unfreeze it.  This prevents fraudsters from being able to pose as you with your stolen personal information, taking out loans in your name and then vanishing with the money they take out.  An administrative nightmare follows, trying to convince the lender that you shouldn’t be on the hook for repayments.  Such a situation can also destroy your credit score for years.

This new legislation has gone almost completely unreported in the media.  Yet it’s a game changer in many ways.  Freezing and unfreezing your profile is simple and free of charge, and takes about 5 minutes on the websites of Equifax and TransUnion.  Once done, no one can easily impersonate you and destroy your credit.  As we spend ever more time protecting our online accounts, it’s nice to finally have effective protection for our credit profiles as well.

Ian Barrett

Power Outages

Ian Barrett

After the derecho of last summer, April brought us an ice storm.  For most, the biggest impact of both of these events was a loss of power, which even in urban areas lasted for many days for some households.

Older neighbourhoods are more at risk of prolonged power outages, largely because of old growth trees.  Although they make streets and yards much prettier, help local wildlife to thrive, and offer welcome respite on hot days, they are also likely to suffer the worst of wind storms. With enough bad luck even the largest trees can be blown over, taking power lines with them.  Looking to the long term, new neighbourhoods like the Plateau have built their power lines underground, eliminating most of the risk caused by falling branches and trees.  However, this hardly seems practical for older neighbourhoods.  Even if we were willing to shoulder the substantial cost of transferring power lines underground, many people would be hesitant to see their gardens and patios torn up for the work.  

In the end, our best option going forward is to make sure that the services provided by our hydro companies are up to the task of cleaning up messes quickly, and ensuring that maintenance of infrastructure is well organized and up to date.  Hydro Québec admitted that they had fallen behind in recent years in terms of trimming branches near power lines.  And although the interactive maps offered by Hydro Québec showing which neighbourhoods are without power are very useful, during major outages residents also need more information on how long an outage on their block is likely to last.  Information needn’t be perfect - simply sharing what Hydro workers are aware of would be a great help.  If it’s likely that your power will be out for a week, knowing this on day one or two would allow you to plan accordingly.

=====

Two weeks ago, this column spoke of child labour and how a new law being drafted by the Québec government would finally make it illegal for most businesses to hire kids under 14.

Sadly, businesses that rely on child labour have started a counter-attack, and have been receiving bafflingly favourable coverage in various major news outlets.  L’association restauration Québec has raised concerns that they’ll be deprived of “good workers”, and that this will possibly impact their ability to serve clients.  Similar concerns have been raised by farmers employing young children to pick strawberries and other produce.  Their main argument is that there are relatively few accidents involving children on the job.  Yet this misses the point entirely.  Children shouldn’t need to work, full stop. Canada has one of the most generous child benefits in the world, and Québec tops it up even more.  Kids should focus on school and enjoying their childhood.  The government of Québec has shown openness to the demands of these employers, and a public consultation is going on this week.  We can only hope that common sense wins the day, and that Québec doesn’t gut last month’s proposal.  Businesses that aren’t viable without child labour should close.

Ian Barrett

Municipal Finances

Ian Barrett

Pylon season is in full swing.  Yet how does the city decide where to put taxpayer dollars?

There are a number of new projects in the works, the largest of which is likely to be the replacement structure for the library at Place des Pionniers.  Yet this year, the city’s plans are focused on maintenance as well, with $53 million going into road maintenance alone.  Yet even this very large amount is only about 2/3 of the annual amount recommended by the auditor general to keep Gatineau roads at an average level for the province.

Another question is where municipal funds come from.  From a taxpayer’s perspective government funds come from the public, so how it’s divided up among the federal government, provinces and cities is less relevant.  But when it comes to governing, we see a large impact on the services we receive.  The city’s perspective is interesting, as explained by Mayor Belisle:

Eighty-two percent of our municipal income is associated with the taxes we collect.

One of the problems we have is the law. The Quebec government does not give us much flexibility to look elsewhere for other revenues. That's really a problem. The other problem is that the Quebec government does not even pay 100% of these taxes. Let's say hospitals, service centres, the courthouse, schools, it's about 70% that the government pays in taxes. It doesn't pay 100%. Why do we here pay 100% of our taxes? The government pays 70%. So, there is really a major inequity in municipal taxation. That's one of the things. We've been lobbying for a long time to change that, because the blue-collar workers, let's say, who pick up the snow there, they also pick up the snow in front of the schools. They don't pick up 70% of the snow, they pick up 100% of the snow. So there's a real inequity there. It's very frustrating when you're a mayor or a municipal councillor, to turn to the citizens and say that there will be a 2.9% increase in taxes and when you know that your provincial government doesn't pay that.  So this is a battle that has been going on for a very long time.

And the provincial government gives us other responsibilities. We have three schools coming up in the West, and the city has to provide the land. We're the ones paying for the land for education, which is under provincial jurisdiction. So we have the impression that we are like a parent after all, or a government line of credit. We just charge. And that's frustrating because we're the frontline, and the province always comes looking for money. So there's really something that's inequitable. The cities have a fiscal pact with the Quebec government that is like a financial deal with the Quebec government. Then we're going to be in renegotiation in 2024, and we'd like to be able to get other revenues as well. And if you want to give us other firm responsibilities, give us the money that comes with the responsibilities.

Ian Barrett

The Value of Education

Ian Barrett

Over 25,000 provincial public sector employees are on strike in the Outaouais this week.  Impacts will be felt across a range of services, with one of the largest being education.  How much are schools worth to us as a society?

Salary is one issue for teachers.  Those working in the public education system make significantly less than those in other industries with similar levels of post-secondary studies.  The importance of their work for society isn’t in doubt.  Yet the Legault government, led on this file by Education Minister Bernard Drainville, is offering a wage increase significantly below the rise in the cost of living.

Yet more than salary, education workers are striking because of a general lack of resources.  Class sizes are large, and there are few options available for special needs children.  Many people in the field put in extremely long hours to compensate for a shortage of colleagues, with few qualified candidates willing to take the positions given the pay and workload.  

New schools are being built, but questions of quality and cost cutting have started to emerge.  Complaints are being raised that new schools have gyms and cafeterias that are too small, and with parts of the infrastructure like sinks and separation curtains non-operational or which broke within a year of the opening of the school, as well as paint that is already peeling.  The outside patio of the Nouvelle-Ère school has never been accessible to students due to concerns over its safety and stability.  There’s also very little outside space reserved for Nouvelle-Ère, despite the area having been largely undeveloped at the time of the school’s planning.

The biggest losers from the current impasse are likely to be children.  The COVID lockdowns and the resulting reduction in classroom instruction mean that many children were already falling behind.  Although detailed evidence is hard to come by, standardized testing results for 15 year olds show that the current cohort is doing substantially worse in math and reading than the group from 4 years prior.  Younger children are showing greater signs of learning disabilities.  Although failure rates have stayed steady, many teachers have been lowering standards for children to pass. Kids will be paying for this lost learning for the rest of their lives.  Now they’re again losing learning time, with negative impacts even if some of the time is recovered over the summer. 

Mr. Drainville first became well known in Quebec as the champion of the Charte des Valeurs pushed by the PQ government of Pauline Marois ten years ago.  It didn’t end well, as the resulting societal conflicts it created are often credited with the defeat of that government after less than two years in power.  Mr. Drainville’s recent return to politics as a member of the CAQ came as a surprise to many.  He now finds himself at the centre of yet another volatile situation shortly after his return.  For the sake of our children’s education, hopefully he’s more effective at finding a solution this time around.

The High Price of Buying a Home

Ian Barrett

Housing is a source of financial stress that has had a very uneven impact on families’ budgets.  For renters, it’s largely meant staying put as much as possible, with financial misery ensuing for those who have to find a new apartment.  In terms of purchasing homes, many would-be home owners have simply been priced out of the market, and have given up on their dreams of owning property.  Prices continue to climb, and when combined with higher interest rates on mortgages, the situation often becomes impossible.

Yet there are bits of good news.  Construction of new housing units has picked up over the last couple of years, which should take at least some pressure off of prices.  Still, a number of factors could weigh this down.  Labour is ever harder to come by, and corresponding salary costs are substantially higher than in previous years.  But far more challenging are interest rates.  Developers usually borrow money from banks and investors to finance projects, repaying the loan and pocketing a profit after construction is completed and the homes are sold.  However, higher interest rates and tighter access to credit mean that it’s harder for developers to turn a profit, and hence there’s less incentive for them to build new housing.  Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada, has raised interest rates to slow down the economy, take pressure off of prices and thereby reduce inflation.  But for housing, these factors mean higher interest rates could instead put upward pressure on prices.

Another aspect of home sales where changes may come is regarding how realtors collect their fees.  A recent court verdict in the U.S. found that the National Association of Realtors and large brokerages conspired to keep the prices of home sales artificially high via locked-in commission rates even as home prices have exploded.  Although it’s not yet clear how things will change in the U.S. following this verdict, one possibility is that realtor fees could move to a fixed-fee structure from the current 5% to 6% of the sale of a home.  The current compensation structure has been hugely beneficial to realtors.  The prices of home sales have roughly doubled in the last several years in many communities, as have realtors' commissions, despite their work staying largely the same.  Currently in the U.S., the average home sale nets a realtor over $65,000.  It is predicted that this could now fall by as much as half.  How this could spill over into Canadian housing prices, where realtors' compensation structures are similar, remains to be seen.

What makes the price of housing such a tricky issue, though, is that current homeowners are quite happy to see the prices of their homes skyrocket.  Who doesn’t like feeling richer with little effort?  And this means that municipal politicians, those who have perhaps the most significant power to change the situation via permitting and approving regional development plans, have little incentive to act, as many voters are quite content with the current situation.  Younger generations are, sadly, left out in the cold.

The Value of Nurses and Teachers

Ian Barrett

The provincial government is entering a tense phase of its negotiations with a number of public sector unions, notably those representing nurses and teachers.  Strikes are being scheduled and carried out, yet the government has repeatedly stated that it doesn’t have the means to meet the wage demands of workers, and is instead offering about 2% a year for the next five years, well below current levels of inflation.

Strikes by these workers will be very inconvenient for many citizens, and likely unpopular.  Yet we should also look at the value these workers offer to society.  

Let’s start with nurses and others working in the healthcare industry.  During the years of the pandemic, Quebecers had to endure stringent lockdowns, the harshest in the country.  Quebec was the only province to impose curfews on its citizens, forbidding them to leave their homes at night for non-essential tasks.  In terms of generalized lockdowns during the day, Quebec was usually the first province to enact them, and among the last to lift them.  It was the only province to require that stores like supermarkets close on Sundays for months at a time.  And yet, Quebec had among the highest Covid fatality rates in the country, something that was attributed to the inability of the Quebec healthcare system to support the increased pressure caused by Covid illnesses.  This was also used as justification for the province’s lockdown measures being stricter than elsewhere in the country.  Add the loss of life from the virus to the added economic and mental health costs of stricter restrictions, and the price of ensuring that workers in the healthcare industry earn wages that are comparable to other other provinces or the private sector becomes relatively small.  There will be other pandemics, and making sure that our healthcare system is up to the task and properly staffed is among the best ways we could spend our money. 

Turning to teachers, the situation is dire.  We’ve gotten to the point where the Quebec government now contents itself with seeking to have an “adult” in every classroom, regardless of qualifications, as stated during the summer by Education Minister Bernard Drainville.  The importance of the work of teachers is well understood - strong grade school education has been shown to raise the lifetime earnings of students by more than 25%.

Given the value that both of these types of workers provide to society, and the critical staffing crisis that the government is already facing in these areas, do we really want to impose real wage cuts on these workers, with raise offers significantly lagging inflation?  Or is this an area worth investing in to ensure that our society is ready for tomorrow’s challenges?  Being stingy in these negotiations will get us painful strikes now, and significant vulnerabilities in Quebec society down the road.  One of the reasons that nurses and teachers tend to earn far less than workers in other domains with similar levels of education is because they’ve traditionally avoided being confrontational in wage negotiations.  Perhaps that’s now changing.  

Wasting Taxpayer Money

Ian Barrett

As taxpayers, we want money that we pay to our governments to be well spent, whether at the federal, provincial, or municipal levels.  The municipal is in ways the most critical, as sources of funding and ability to borrow are more limited, services maintaining infrastructure touch residents directly, and the media pays comparatively little attention to how cities spend money, meaning less oversight than at the provincial and federal levels.  An excellent example is Laval, where for almost 25 years Gilles Vaillancourt ran the city with next to no scrutiny, enriching himself freely in the process.  In 2012 he was finally charged, and in 2016 he was convicted of corruption and fraud, sentenced to 6 years in jail and ordered to repay more than $8M in ill-gotten gains.

This is not to say that cities come under zero scrutiny.  Recently a story ran in Le Droit showing that about $10M has been spent by Gatineau since 2016 on an accounting system that turned out to be largely ineffective.  Called PIVO, this system was originally meant to be operational in 2018.  Yet high staff turnover and unforeseen complexities of the project meant that this timeline proved to be completely unrealistic.  After a series of attempts to salvage the project, it was officially suspended last year.  Instead, an agreement was reached with the city of Levis to use the accounting software they had built, and where some of the work already done by Gatineau could be used to personalize Levis’ solution.  Still, this came with an additional bill of over $8M.

The city has been as transparent as possible on this file, which is to the credit of town hall.  And according to all indications everything was done in good faith.  Yet from the beginning there wasn’t enough oversight, and the city doesn’t have a calculation of how much of the original $10M spent on PIVO is truly lost, versus how much can be considered salvageable for other projects.

Given that economic conditions will likely worsen over the coming years, including ever higher costs, the importance of doing as much with the money the city has will be greater than ever.  Ensuring that the Office of the Auditor General of Gatineau has all of the tools necessary to thoroughly conduct its duties, and in a timely enough manner to head off waste before too much is lost, helps to substantially reduce risk.  Having a strong and well-funded media that is focused on local governance is also essential, whether via private news sources like Le Droit and the Bulletin or public entities like the CBC and Radio Canada.  Substantial cost overruns for the $100M Slush Puppy Arena were a reminder of how much is at stake.  This translates to about $300 for every resident of Gatineau, be they adult or child.  The cost estimates for the Lucy Faris library project in Aylmer are quickly rising from the previous calculations of about $50M.  Careful validation of the details of expenditures on this project can help to avoid nasty surprises down the road.

A Supermarket for Old Hull

Ian Barrett

Gatineau’s downtown is a shell of what it should be.  Many of the houses are in deplorable condition, with a number completely burnt-out following fire.  Owners rent them out without maintaining them, waiting for prices to climb enough to make a substantial profit selling the land, which is then converted into condos.

Gatineau has been looking to revitalize downtown Hull for decades, with little success.  In some ways the situation has gotten worse in recent years.  The area was already largely a food desert, but the closing of Giant Tiger a few years ago removed one of the few options residents had for buying fresh produce.  Many called for targeted municipal tax policies to encourage the opening of a grocery store, but this would require coordination with provincial legislators as well, due to restrictions the provincial government places on cities creating targeted tax measures.  Yet there’s no shortage of options for junk food in Hull, from the many convenience stores to the McDonald’s, with a liquor store also in the area.

So, it’s certainly welcome news that a new grocery store is going to open in a central location in the area.  Although details are still emerging as of the writing of this editorial, a COOP supermarket will be included in the new WEII building on the corner of Wellington and Eddy.  This will be a major step forward in terms of normalizing Old Hull and making it a place where families and young professionals choose to live.  It will also help to prevent most of the new condos and apartments being built from ending up as short-term rentals for tourists.

Yet more will clearly need to be done.  Steve Moran, the councillor for the area, has a number of plans to help move things forward.  The city has already established a policy of favouring buildings of 2 to 7 storeys in the region and created a grant program to help meet targets for density.  There’s an argument that going higher than 7 floors isn’t possible due to infrastructure limitations.  Any such limitations will need to be addressed in the coming years, especially if the federal government lets go of some of the offices it currently owns in the area, opening substantial space for new residences.

A new bylaw put in place in late 2021 requires that any requests for demolition be accompanied by plans for the construction of the building which will come after.  This prevents owners from leaving lots vacant for long periods, but at the same time can mean that burnt out husks remain standing for longer.  The city is also considering a vacant house tax, though no date has yet been set for when that might be implemented.

Most importantly of all, the city is prioritizing the creation of markets, parks, and better public transit to accelerate the transition away from heavy reliance on federal workers to support Old Hull’s economy by dining out for their lunches.  The city’s success or failure will define Old Hull for generations to come.

Talking to Our Councillors

Ian Barrett

It’s always a challenge for our elected officials to engage with residents in meaningful ways.  This is especially important at the municipal level, where issues are community-based by nature, and our councillors need to know details of what’s happening in the community to do their jobs.

A number of efforts have been tried.  Public consultations are often organized in Gatineau, but to those in attendance they can often feel more like public information sessions, where the city gives details on decisions that have already been made.  Even when the structure of the consultation does give the impression that it’s to gauge opinions and get feedback from residents, it’s often hard to judge what the city does with the information that it collects.  An example is the tramway.  STO held public consultations shortly after plans for the tramway were announced, and the events were well structured, collecting opinions and feedback in an organized way from those in attendance.  Yet as the project solidified, there seemed to be no changes to the original preferred plans.

Going forward, it would help with public perception if the city published reports summarizing the information it collects at these public consultations, showing how it was taken into consideration, and justifying final decisions.  This would need to be well promoted and made easily available in a prominent place on the City of Gatineau’s website.  Transparency is key to avoiding a perception in our communities that public consultations are merely public relations exercises.  Clearly showing that attending these events is a productive use of residents’ time would also help to increase turnout, and help to grow trust and confidence between the community and the city’s government.

Another example of previous attempts at community outreach was how municipal council meetings would occasionally be held outside of Old Hull, to give residents in the east and west of the city easier access to proceedings.  This was a nice initiative, and usually had high turnout.  However, the city has decided to discontinue this practice going forward.  It is hard to tell if the council meetings held outside of downtown had a different audience than the regular council sessions.  Topics at the Aylmer meeting earlier this year focused mostly on the environment, with few questions focusing specifically on western regions of the city.  So if the meetings tend to be the same content regardless of where they’re held, the argument for having them in different parts of the city becomes somewhat less compelling.  Yet any such decisions should be evidence based, with justifications published and clearly accessible.

Perhaps there are more appropriate alternatives to holding council meetings in different neighbourhoods.  Do Buckingham councillors really need to be at meetings with residents in Hull, and vice-versa?  Town hall meetings with the mayor and councillors of specific neighbourhoods might be more appropriate.  These are common in the U.S., often used by senators and congressmen to interact with local communities.  They can be more specifically tailored to concerns of the neighbourhood where they’re held, making them more appealing for local residents.  

The Value of Nurses and Teachers

Ian Barrett

The provincial government is entering a tense phase of its negotiations with a number of public sector unions, notably those representing nurses and teachers.  Strikes are being scheduled and carried out, yet the government has repeatedly stated that it doesn’t have the means to meet the wage demands of workers, and is instead offering about 2% a year for the next five years, well below current levels of inflation.

Strikes by these workers will be very inconvenient for many citizens, and likely unpopular.  Yet we should also look at the value these workers offer to society.  

Let’s start with nurses and others working in the healthcare industry.  During the years of the pandemic, Quebecers had to endure stringent lockdowns, the harshest in the country.  Quebec was the only province to impose curfews on its citizens, forbidding them to leave their homes at night for non-essential tasks.  In terms of generalized lockdowns during the day, Quebec was usually the first province to enact them, and among the last to lift them.  It was the only province to require that stores like supermarkets close on Sundays for months at a time.  And yet, Quebec had among the highest Covid fatality rates in the country, something that was attributed to the inability of the Quebec healthcare system to support the increased pressure caused by Covid illnesses.  This was also used as justification for the province’s lockdown measures being stricter than elsewhere in the country.  Add the loss of life from the virus to the added economic and mental health costs of stricter restrictions, and the price of ensuring that workers in the healthcare industry earn wages that are comparable to other other provinces or the private sector becomes relatively small.  There will be other pandemics, and making sure that our healthcare system is up to the task and properly staffed is among the best ways we could spend our money. 

Turning to teachers, the situation is dire.  We’ve gotten to the point where the Quebec government now contents itself with seeking to have an “adult” in every classroom, regardless of qualifications, as stated during the summer by Education Minister Bernard Drainville.  The importance of the work of teachers is well understood - strong grade school education has been shown to raise the lifetime earnings of students by more than 25%.

Given the value that both of these types of workers provide to society, and the critical staffing crisis that the government is already facing in these areas, do we really want to impose real wage cuts on these workers, with raise offers significantly lagging inflation?  Or is this an area worth investing in to ensure that our society is ready for tomorrow’s challenges?  Being stingy in these negotiations will get us painful strikes now, and significant vulnerabilities in Quebec society down the road.  One of the reasons that nurses and teachers tend to earn far less than workers in other domains with similar levels of education is because they’ve traditionally avoided being confrontational in wage negotiations.  Perhaps that’s now changing.  

Ian Barrett

Talking to Our Councillors

Ian Barrett

It’s always a challenge for our elected officials to engage with residents in meaningful ways.  This is especially important at the municipal level, where issues are community-based by nature, and our councillors need to know details of what’s happening in the community to do their jobs.

A number of efforts have been tried.  Public consultations are often organized in Gatineau, but to those in attendance they can often feel more like public information sessions, where the city gives details on decisions that have already been made.  Even when the structure of the consultation does give the impression that it’s to gauge opinions and get feedback from residents, it’s often hard to judge what the city does with the information that it collects.  An example is the tramway.  STO held public consultations shortly after plans for the tramway were announced, and the events were well structured, collecting opinions and feedback in an organized way from those in attendance.  Yet as the project solidified, there seemed to be no changes to the original preferred plans.

Going forward, it would help with public perception if the city published reports summarizing the information it collects at these public consultations, showing how it was taken into consideration, and justifying final decisions.  This would need to be well promoted and made easily available in a prominent place on the City of Gatineau’s website.  Transparency is key to avoiding a perception in our communities that public consultations are merely public relations exercises.  Clearly showing that attending these events is a productive use of residents’ time would also help to increase turnout, and help to grow trust and confidence between the community and the city’s government.

Another example of previous attempts at community outreach was how municipal council meetings would occasionally be held outside of Old Hull, to give residents in the east and west of the city easier access to proceedings.  This was a nice initiative, and usually had high turnout.  However, the city has decided to discontinue this practice going forward.  It is hard to tell if the council meetings held outside of downtown had a different audience than the regular council sessions.  Topics at the Aylmer meeting earlier this year focused mostly on the environment, with few questions focusing specifically on western regions of the city.  So if the meetings tend to be the same content regardless of where they’re held, the argument for having them in different parts of the city becomes somewhat less compelling.  Yet any such decisions should be evidence based, with justifications published and clearly accessible.

Perhaps there are more appropriate alternatives to holding council meetings in different neighbourhoods.  Do Buckingham councillors really need to be at meetings with residents in Hull, and vice-versa?  Town hall meetings with the mayor and councillors of specific neighbourhoods might be more appropriate.  These are common in the U.S., often used by senators and congressmen to interact with local communities.  They can be more specifically tailored to concerns of the neighbourhood where they’re held, making them more appealing for local residents.  

Ian Barrett

Dairy Prices

Ian Barrett

In a year of high inflation, the price of dairy has been among the fastest rising at the supermarket.  Milk prices rose by around 20% in six months.  Although many families don’t drink enough dairy for this to significantly impact budgets, restaurants have been feeling the pinch at a time when labour shortages already have many owners reeling.  

Canadians already pay among the highest prices in the world for dairy.  On average, a litre of milk costs twice the price as in the U.S., and over 50% more than in the U.K., France and Australia.  The reason for high prices in Canada is a system called supply management, where the number of producers is tightly controlled and Canadian farmers have much more influence in setting prices compared to those in competitive markets elsewhere in the world.  In return, dairy farmers receive fewer subsidies and grants from the government than in other countries. 

While Canadian consumers frequently grumble about the prices of milk and cheese, even farmers complain that supply management isn’t working.  Many dairy farms are small and haven’t been able to innovate to reduce costs, meaning profits for many farm owners are low and the work is hard.  Licences to milk a cow, which were granted for free in the 1970s, now fetch upwards of $24,000 per cow, making many farmers well off on paper, but only able to cash in when they exit the industry.  This also makes it very hard for younger generations to get a start in dairy farming, as well as current dairy farmers looking to take advantage of economies of scale by increasing the size of their operations.

Prices are set in a very opaque way by the Canadian Dairy Commission.  They use a survey of roughly 200 farmers in which they give information on their costs, much of which is considered confidential and not shared with the public.  At a time when dairy price hikes far exceed inflation elsewhere, transparency should be of the utmost importance.

Farmers are also required to make mandatory contributions to marketing funds which are used to advertise dairy products, but again there is little transparency.  The Toronto Maple Leafs will sport a “milk” patch on their jerseys for the next couple of years, but the costs of this deal have not been shared even with dairy farmers.  We do know that tens of millions of dollars are spent on marketing dairy products each year.

Also unclear is how grocery stores set price increases on their end.  Over the last year, supermarkets have increased dairy prices by twice the amount mandated by the Canadian Dairy Commission.

With so few happy with the status quo, changes would certainly be welcome.  Helping more dairy farmers to innovate and invest in robotics to milk cows instead of using manual labour would help reduce costs over the long term, along with justification for raising prices.  The question is why dairy can’t exist in a similar system as the rest of agriculture, with subsidies instead of high prices.

Ian Barrett

Violence in Politics

Ian Barrett

During the current campaign, we’ve seen a rise in threats to our electoral candidates.  This is extremely worrying, first and foremost because our candidates are members of our community, and have the same right to feel safe as everyone else.  Secondly, because such hostile environments discourage many motivated and talented people from running for office.  Even more depressing, bullying and harassment of candidates are often aimed at women, which further complicates efforts to achieve more gender equity among our elected officials.

Although more attention is being given to this problem now than in the recent past, violence against politicians is nothing new.  The U.S. has many famous examples of assassinations going back throughout its history, from Lincoln to John and Robert Kennedy.  Ronald Reagan was shot in the 1980s.  More recently, lower profile (and less protected) politicians such as Gabby Giffords in 2011 and Steve Scalise in 2017 were also shot while in public.

Although Canada is in general less violent than the U.S., we have certainly not been immune.  The most famous terrorist attacks were likely those of the FLQ in the 1960s and 1970s.  But our history has been checkered with other examples as well.  Many were ethnic based, such as the assassination of Thomas D’Arcy McGee by Irish nationalists in the 19th century.  Other political movements have been mostly forgotten, but Canadian anti-materialist movements set off bombs throughout the 20th century which resulted in several casualties in the 1920s.  Anarchist movements were responsible for a series of killings and terrorist attacks globally throughout the 20th century, but luckily Canada was largely spared.  Perhaps the most disturbing example of political violence in our recent history was the attempted assassination of Pauline Marois in 2012, where a technician was killed.

All of this is to say that verbal and physical violence towards our political representatives is, tragically, longstanding.  Many have blamed social media for the rise in nasty behaviour over the last decade, and it’s certainly true that it fans the flames of deranged behaviour.  Yet looking over history, social media on its own doesn’t explain political violence.

There are no easy answers, or we would likely have solved this problem long ago.  But there are certainly strategies to improve the situation.  The most obvious is to condemn divisive behaviour by both voters and politicians.  For those running for office, engaging in nasty and provocative public discourse can be a tempting approach, as it is more likely to draw attention and attract enthusiastic supporters.  Yet the price paid by society is very high.  During the last two years of the pandemic, tempers were often at a fever pitch, and we’ve seen those frustrations spilling over into campaigns as well.  Still, exercising restraint on all sides would make us all better off.  We’re very fortunate that we haven’t had a political assassination in Canada since the 1960s.  Encouraging civil public discourse can help ensure that we keep it that way.  And an excellent start is to punish candidates who take the low road by not voting for them.

Ian Barrett

Languages (1)

Ian Barrett

Languages are one of the most important components of culture.  Canada is fortunate to have two official languages, something which defines who we are as a nation.

Yet we all know that the two languages are not on equal footing.  Far more people speak English than French, and francophones have been fighting for centuries to preserve their language in a largely English continent.  

Over the last several weeks concerns have risen about results from the 2021 census showing fewer people identifying as francophone in Canada.  It’s imperative that as a society we protect the French language.  Yet it’s also important to pick strategies to maintain French that have the best chance of working.

A recent focus has been on the number of people in Québec speaking French at home, especially among immigrants.  Programs in Québec teaching immigrants French have been a major success story of the past several decades.  Yet looking at how many non-francophone immigrants end up speaking French to their families is not a good measure of how well immigrants are adapting to the local culture of Québec.  Immigrant parents want their children to speak their native languages as well, and so are highly likely to speak those languages when at home.  If an anglophone or francophone Canadian family were to move to, say, Germany, it’s unlikely that they’d start to speak German to their children.  They would almost certainly send their children to school in German, ensuring that they learn the local language and hence adapt to life in their new country, while also keeping the family’s native language as what they speak to each other.  Rules forcing immigrant children to attend school in French mean almost all become fluent in the language.  This is true even though they often continue to speak their native languages at home.

A much better measure of the vitality of French is the percentage of the population able to converse and work in the language.  This is the major success story of the last several decades in Québec, with the percentage of those able to converse in French significantly higher than 90%.

Attracting more francophone immigrants is also a clear priority for the Legault government.  Although some will come from Europe, there are generally not enough potential immigrants from that part of the world to meet the economic needs of the province and fill the skills gap Québec faces.  Hence a more francophone centric immigration policy will need to focus more on other French-speaking countries, the vast majority of which are in Africa.  Yet people from countries such as Algeria, Tunisia and Senegal often felt targeted by the secularism laws the Legault government passed over the last several years.  If the province wants to attract more francophones, care will need to be taken in crafting policies and communication approaches that make immigrants from these countries feel welcome.

There are no easy answers to maintaining the vitality of Canadian French in a globalized world.  At the very least we should approach the problem with the most realistic game plan possible.

Ian Barrett

Ending Cigarette Addiction

Ian Barrett

One of the great success stories of public health in recent years has been the plummeting numbers of smokers in society.  In the 1960s almost half of the adult population smoked.  Today, it’s a bit more than 10%.

There have been a number of strategies that have led to such a great outcome.  Education certainly played a role.  As people learned more about how dangerous tobacco products are, they were more inclined to quit.  Tobacco taxes also helped motivate people to smoke less, as the habit became quite expensive over the years.  Over the last two decades it also became increasingly difficult to find places where smoking was permitted, as restaurants and bars banned indoor smoking as well as smoking on patios, and smoking rooms in offices disappeared.  Cigarette companies were also banned from advertising or sponsoring events, reducing their profiles and chances to promote smoking generally.

As smoking became ever more inconvenient, more people gave it up.  The introduction of vaping gave smokers a less harmful alternative to get the nicotine they craved.  Unfortunately, it became more questionable how beneficial vaping was for society as a whole as vaping companies pivoted to promoting their products to teenagers and began to addict a new generation to nicotine.

However, despite the effectiveness of all of these approaches, a powerful tool has never been used in Canada - reducing nicotine.  On the contrary, over the last 60 years, the amount of nicotine in cigarettes has increased substantially.  It’s risen by over 10% in a single decade.  This is hardly a coincidence.  Tobacco companies realize what keeps smokers coming back for more.  Instead of allowing tobacco companies to raise nicotine concentrations, our governments should have been mandating them to reduce it, at the very least getting it back to the levels of the 1960s, before people realized how dangerous cigarettes are and began to want to quit.

In the U.S., the government is finally heading down this route.  It will likely take years to implement as the tobacco companies use all of the legal tools at their disposal to stall these important new regulations, but at least we’re seeing progress.  It’s certainly not a done deal, as the Obama administration had also attempted this, before the new regulations were scrapped during the Trump presidency.  New Zealand is also taking a similar approach.  Canada can certainly follow suit, and legislation has already been passed limiting the concentration of nicotine in vaping products.

Tobacco companies argue that such an approach would actually encourage people to smoke more in order to get the nicotine they crave, as well as driving people to the black market for cigarettes.  Yet the counter argument is fairly simple: Lower nicotine concentrations slowly over time.  It would be difficult for smokers to notice reductions of 5% or even 10% per year, but over a decade the cumulative effect would substantially lower the difficulty for smokers to quit.  Since nicotine doesn’t give much of a high, moving to a nicotine free world is much easier than eliminating other drugs.  The only thing stopping us is inertia.

Ian Barrett

University Funding

Ian Barrett

Lately, whenever education has been in the news, the focus was usually on our public schools and how they’ve struggled to cope with the challenges presented by the pandemic and our responses to it.  Post secondary institutions have received far less attention.  The first thing to come to mind is tuition rates, which in Quebec are relatively affordable, though students in Ontario pay almost three times as much.  Yet how universities are governed has a major impact on society as well, though it receives little attention.

One example is Laurentian University in Sudbury.  It recently filed for bankruptcy protection, the first university in Canada ever to have done so.  It subsequently cut many programs and laid off a significant portion of its staff, including tenured professors.  The idea that a major university could fail is concerning, but Laurentian is especially important because it allows francophones in northern Ontario to study at a local university in their native language.  Laurentian found itself in financial difficulty after spending excessively on construction over the past decade, racking up hundreds of millions of dollars in debt.  This certainly matters to everyone in Ontario, since many tax dollars flow into the coffers of public universities.

Quebec is certainly not exempt from these sorts of problems.  Ten years ago, UQAM wasted over $300M in public funds on its failed Îlot Voyageur construction project.  Given the already difficult financial situations of many universities, such money could have been put to excellent use elsewhere.

One such possibility is increasing public funding for research at universities.  Health care research has largely been confined to the private sector, especially in terms of pharmaceuticals.  Yet perhaps the greatest lesson of Covid is that society is willing to pay enormous amounts to protect public health.  Building solid research capacity at our universities would allow an alternative to the profit-driven models of the pharmaceutical industry.  It’s only natural that private companies have to cover their costs.  But the nature of the private sector also encourages companies to maximize profits.  This means that many illnesses go without treatment for far too long largely because the potential profits from designing a treatment aren’t enough.  A malaria vaccine has only just been developed, despite the illness having been with us for thousands of years and continuing to kill more than half a million people annually, mostly children.  It causes severe illness in millions of others.  Yet wealthy countries have largely rid themselves of malaria, so the profit potential of a vaccine was less.  By leveraging the public sector and working towards the common good, many lives across the world could be greatly improved.  Oxford showed that it was possible for the public sector to make important contributions to health care with its AstraZeneca Covid vaccine.  Despite bad press, it’s now seen as about as effective as Pfizer’s vaccine.

Each province will handle post-secondary education differently, as they do for health care.  Still, if we tap the potential of our universities we’ll all be better 

Making the Most of the Money We Have

Ian Barrett

Tax season is the natural time to think about our finances.  Given how easy it has been to take out loans over the last several years, many households find themselves in tight situations with rising interest rates and high inflation.  Although there are no easy answers, there are a number of options available that can help us to do more with the income that we have.

When it comes to personal finances, there’s no shortage of contradictory advice coming from the media or friends and family.  Cryptocurrencies are certainly fashionable, but tend to bewilder most people.  Others recommend more traditional investments or a simple savings account.  Regardless of the approach you choose, there is one guaranteed way to get the most from your savings - minimize the fees financial institutions are charging you for whatever type of investment you prefer.  As an example, consider funds built on stocks and bonds.  These are among the most popular ways to save, be it in mutual funds or ETFs (exchange-traded funds, which are sold on the stock market).  What many people don’t realize is that the fees charged on these types of funds vary substantially.  They can go as low as 0.03% to in excess of 2%, and even more for specialized products.  The practical implications of this are immense, as fees are charged on the total amount you have invested, year in and year out.  For someone who’s managed to save $500,000 for their retirement, these fees would amount to $150 a year with 0.03% fees, versus $10,000 per year with 2% fees.  Because these charges are subtracted from the growth of your savings, many people don’t notice how much they’re paying.  Worst of all, mutual funds often have fees of close to 2%.  Switching to ETFs or simply shopping around for mutual funds with lower fees can save a substantial amount of money each year.

Canada also has a large number of registered savings accounts to help people put some money away, either for a rainy day or for their retirement.  The most popular of these programs are RRSPs (Registered Retirement Savings Accounts) and TFSAs (Tax Free Savings Accounts).  However, there is another program called RESPs (Registered Education Savings Accounts) which for parents of young children can be the most generous of all.  This program helps families to save for future tuition costs for their children.  Contributing $2,500 in a year to this program gets at least a $600 combined bonus from the federal and provincial governments.  Even better, low income families get a $500 bonus just for opening an RESP, without needing to contribute anything at all.

One problem with RESPs is that the amounts that can be contributed and which are eligible for government bonuses are not indexed, and stay the same year after year.  Given how fast the cost of tuition rises, it would be nice for these amounts to increase as well.

Overall, taking a few hours to explore the financial options available to us is time well spent, and can ease pressure on our budgets in these uncertain times.

Ian Barrett

Strengthening the System

Ian Barrett

Quebec’s Covid policies and regulations have focused on personal responsibility and avoiding major surges in the number of people requiring care.  Yet we’ve talked comparatively little about the other side of the solution, how to increase capacity in our healthcare system and make it less fragile.

The number of hospital beds in the province has barely increased over the last five years.  Yet prior to the pandemic we were already looking at a major demographic challenge - the aging of the baby boomers.  The boomers are now entering their 80s, meaning that they’ll be more vulnerable to heart disease, strokes, infections, and falls.  Additionally, they’re more likely to need emergency adjustments to pre-existing devices like pacemakers. Add in risks from future pandemics and we clearly need greater hospital capacity.

The main limiting factor in our healthcare system is a shortage of staff, especially nurses.  This was the primary reason given over the last few months for reimposing stringent lockdowns.  

A significant reason for shortages of nurses is relatively low salaries.  Measuring the average salary of a nurse is difficult, as some nurses work part-time while others work substantial amounts of overtime.  But their salaries tend to be in line with police officers, firefighters, and bus drivers.  All of these jobs are quite crucial to our societies, but to become a nurse requires four years of a demanding university program, making this career choice less appealing.  Nurses in Quebec also earn five to ten percent less than in neighbouring provinces, including the maritimes where the cost of living is lower and where further salary increases will soon be implemented.

The Legault government has taken some initial steps to address this problem, primarily by offering nurses bonuses to entice them back to Quebec’s public system.  However, these initiatives have had only limited success.  This is not surprising, since bonuses help to address salary concerns for a few months or years, but the long-term salary disadvantages of a nurse aren’t addressed.  So perhaps it’s time to think of paying nurses in line with engineers, economists and architects, careers that require training of about the same duration.  This would mean raises of about 50%.  The costs for taxpayers would be high, but costs of lockdowns are far higher.

We also need to increase the capacity of nursing faculties at universities, as well as making it easier for nurses from other countries to immigrate to Quebec and practice their profession.  Ontario recently took steps in these directions.  Identifying tasks such as administrative work that nurses perform but which could be assigned to employees with less specialization would help free up badly needed resources too.  Making it a priority to eliminate mandatory overtime requirements would also make the nursing profession more attractive.

It’s clear that the status quo is not sustainable.  We can’t keep locking down society every winter in the name of protecting a fragile health care system.  The costs of such an approach far outweigh those of strengthening the system and paying our healthcare workers what their services are worth.

Transparency and Long Term Vision (1)

Ian Barrett

As we emerge from the worst of the Omicron wave of the pandemic, the world is beginning to plan how to live with Covid.  Several provinces here in Canada as well as countries across the world have released plans for winding down longstanding Covid measures such as vaccine passports and mask mandates.  Still, it’s difficult to pin down exactly what “life with Covid” will look like.

One essential component of this will be respectful public debate.  With the urgency of the early part of the pandemic fading, major decisions can’t be made exclusively by a small group of people.  Voices from across society will need a say in crafting what daily life will look like over the coming years.

Respectful debate about health policy has been at times drowned out by more passionate exchanges over the last two years.  However, the Globe and Mail recently published a very interesting article by Norman Doidge, a medical doctor and executive director of Health and the Greater Good, an organization pushing for more transparency in health care.  This article raised very interesting points that don’t always get the attention they deserve.  One was the importance of finding new treatments for Covid that go beyond vaccines.  Vaccines are very effective at preventing hospitalizations and death, unquestionably our primary goal.  Yet with variants causing ever more breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals, especially those with preexisting conditions, having more tools in our tool belt will certainly help us to keep death rates as low as possible.  

Another point raised by the article is the importance of stating when we are unsure, something bound to happen given the limited data we’ve been dealing with throughout the pandemic.  We’ve all been extremely anxious to put Covid behind us.  Yet we presented Covid vaccines as a silver bullet over the last year, with only short term studies available on their effectiveness.  How they held up long term was unknown, yet we were told that when enough people were vaccinated, often with references to 75% or 80% of the population, the pandemic would be over.

An unintentional consequence of this is that disappointment with how things turned out over the last year could drive down vaccination rates for many diseases beyond Covid.  Even seeing vaccination rates for diseases like polio and measles drop to 85% would be quite devastating.

Moreover, in the face of variants it’s unclear how much or even if Covid vaccines substantially reduce transmission.  Booster shots are certainly important to maintain high levels of protection from severe outcomes, in particular for the elderly and those with pre-existing health complications.  Yet early data from Israel and Britain, countries that have been at the forefront of vaccination efforts, suggests that the extra protection afforded by a third dose may significantly weaken after as little as ten weeks.  Israel is now rolling out a fourth dose.  By having these conversations up front and early, we can avoid disillusionment and disappointment later on.

Frank discussion and debate are the best antidotes to conspiracy theories and nasty public discourse.

Canada's Democratic Example from Quebec

Ian Barrett

Many geopolitical disputes and conflicts start as disputes over territory, either because one country wants to take land from another, or because a region within a country wants to separate or have more autonomy.   Although these situations are often violent and frequently produce atrocities as with the current situation in Ukraine, at times it’s limited to the jailing of those seen as taking part in sedition for organizing political movements or referendums, as in Catalonia in Spain a few years ago.

Yet modern Canada has been one of the few countries to use truly democratic means to resolve disputes over land and politics.  Organizing not one but two referendums on the independence of a region within our borders is something unheard of in the rest of the world.  We have even been open to holding a third referendum if there were enough support within Quebec.

Canada’s response was of course not perfect, and there have been many articles and books written by both sides of the Quebec independence movement about the shortcomings of our approach.  Still, the fact remains that we avoided major bloodshed and violations of civil rights, with the worst period in the Quebec independence saga being the October Crisis of 1970.  Although something that everyone would have preferred to avoid, it certainly pales in comparison to what we’ve seen in other democratic countries like Spain in 2017-2018 and Ukraine since 2014.

The reasons for Canada’s success in this area are not easy to pin down, and there are certainly different opinions on the subject.  A few of the more common explanations are strong democratic roots in Canada as well as respect for the ideals of self determination over nationalistic identities; an almost entirely pacifist sovereignty movement within Quebec; the existence of political parties that allowed those seeking independence to be represented within the system; and a general lack of outside interference from other countries.

This is certainly not to say that Canada’s experiences were painless.  Many within Quebec suffered financially and emotionally from the political instability created by decades of constitutional wrangling and debate.  Doubts about what an independent Quebec would look like are thought to have significantly held back economic development in the province from the early 1970s until the sovereignty movement began to lose support in the mid 2000s.  As well, many people felt the need to relocate from Quebec to neighbouring regions like Ontario, especially in the 1970s.

Still, the fact remains that after many years of debate and soul searching, Canada is still a unified country, and has avoided the simmering resentment that results from military conquest or systemic infringements of rights and freedom.  Although our country has always been a looser confederation than many others, we continue to have shared national values and at least a general sense of common identity.

As we have witnessed the global reemergence of nationalism over the past number of years, and in many cases armed conflict and bloody atrocities to enforce geopolitical goals, the world could benefit from looking to Canada’s democratic example with Quebec.

The Price of Housing (1)

Ian Barrett

Gatineau has been one of the hottest real estate markets over the last year, with prices climbing more than 25%, and over 60% in just 4 years.  Although last year’s real estate inflation was lower in Ottawa at about 15%, the average price of a home there is nearly twice that of Gatineau, meaning that prices on this side of the river still have a lot of room to climb.  Annual inflation of rent in Gatineau is far lower than purchasing a home, but has still been in excess of 5%, a tremendous burden on lower income families when taken over a period of several years.

Lately, many have been blaming insufficient supply of housing as the main cause of the explosion in prices.  As populations grow, the need for more homes to meet rising demand is certainly an important factor in real estate inflation.  The population of Canada grows a bit less than 1% per year, mostly via immigration.  These new residents need places to live, and if the supply of housing doesn’t keep up, it’s to be expected that prices will rise.

However, can such increases in population really explain such higher costs on their own?  Looking to Europe, the argument becomes a little shakier.  Over the period 1998 to 2018, real estate prices in Canada surged by over 250%.  Yet France, with rates of population growth less than half Canada’s, still saw the price of an average home climb by over 200%.

Interest rates are often cited as another major factor causing higher prices.  Lower rates mean that buyers can bid higher for houses and still afford their monthly mortgage payments.  Yet greater borrowing power isn’t the only driver behind higher offers.  Another major component is investors, both domestic and foreign.  They see real estate as a safe place to put their savings, and may only be looking to hold on to these properties for a few years before selling for a profit.  The share of transactions coming from investors has been steadily increasing in recent years, now accounting for nearly a quarter of transactions in Canada, and mostly concentrated in hot urban markets.  Unlike first time buyers, they often have the means to pay in cash on the spot.  Plus, investors paying more for homes make investing in real estate more tempting to others looking for high returns, who then invest their savings and drive up the price of housing even further.

Another factor driving up prices is blind bidding.  When the market overheats and houses sell quickly, desperate buyers afraid to lose out feel an incentive to add thousands of dollars to the asking price as a way to increase the likelihood of being the winning bidder.  This is a vicious cycle, as this buffer needs to be ever higher as more buyers adopt the approach.

The problem of affordability in housing is certainly complex, as are solutions.  Although governments are paying more attention to this problem, much still needs to be done to ensure future generations are able to own a home.

Inflation and Globalization

Ian Barrett

For the first time in a generation, inflation is significantly squeezing people’s budgets.  After decades of hovering around two percent, the rate generally seen as ideal, it recently shot past five and could easily go higher still.  More worryingly, prices for certain things have risen substantially more.  Beef is up over 15% in a year, with dairy products close behind.  The increases in costs for renovations and household appliances have also been well in excess of 10% over the last year.  And of course, anyone looking to buy a home has felt the full brunt of inflation in the housing market, which many would say is out of control.

There are quite a few reasons for such steep increases in prices, most of which have been thoroughly covered elsewhere in the media.

One factor that has so far escaped attention, however, is globalization.  Or rather, recent efforts by most western countries to begin winding it down.  The pandemic and the resulting government responses from across the world have shown us the dangers of relying on imports for many of our most crucial products.  Many governments have spoken about supply chains, and how temporary interruptions in access to foreign imports have driven up prices.  In response, many corporations are now bringing back local manufacturing, under pressure from clients and shareholders as well.  More voices than ever argue that this is completely reasonable, and will help to provide a more reliable supply of critical goods as well as better jobs within our counties after decades of losing them to other nations.

Yet although globalization’s impact on our societies’ overall well-being was and will continue to be hotly debated, one thing is clear - that globalization did indeed drive down prices for consumers, especially in terms of manufactured goods.  This was largely due to cheaper labour and looser environmental regulations in developing countries where factories were located.  Regardless, we’ll almost certainly see the opposite effect on prices now.  Manufacturing the same product at many smaller factories in more developed countries will be more expensive than making the same thing at a handful of large facilities concentrated in a single developing country.  Many of us are willing to pay more to know that workers are being treated and paid well, and the environment is respected.  Yet we should still be prepared for these higher costs, not be surprised when they come, and plan accordingly.  We should also be aware of the ripple effect of these costs, as the extra expenses farmers face for equipment are passed on to customers at the supermarket.

Energy costs are rising due to changes in the global order as well, in particular as developed nations look for alternatives to imports from countries that use the proceeds to prop up nasty regimes.

These are just some of many factors causing inflation, yet the impacts of higher prices will be greatest on those earning the least.  How we protect those on fixed incomes is something that we should start preparing for now, especially considering that inflation is unlikely to go away any time soon.  

Covid Lessons (2)

Ian Barrett

Looking back over the lessons learned from the pandemic and the policies, regulations and rules we used to limit its spread, we see encouraging signs as well as warnings and areas that should be improved.

First, very welcome news is that deaths related to cardiovascular diseases and cancer increased only slightly throughout the pandemic.  There were widespread fears that people were not getting the care they needed as our health system shifted its focus to dealing with the pandemic.  Not only were resources stretched to the extreme, but it was also thought that people might avoid going to hospital emergency units for fear of catching Covid.  Although cancer can take years to cause someone’s death, the idea that we didn’t see a significant uptick in cancer deaths over the last two years is a great relief.  Cardiovascular disease can kill quite quickly, so the idea that deaths with this cause didn’t increase substantially throughout the pandemic is even more reassuring.  These outcomes are testament to the professionalism of our health care workers generally, and their ability to keep the system working under even the most difficult of circumstances.

Opioid related deaths spiked substantially during the pandemic, more than doubling on an annualized basis since 2019.  Still, it’s hard to separate the impacts of the isolation caused by lockdowns with the increased availability of ever stronger and more dangerous synthetic drugs over the same period.  Yet it’s reasonable to assume that had more help been readily available at least some of these deaths could have been prevented. 

In terms of alcohol sales, there was an increase during the pandemic, but it followed a similar trend to previous years.  This is certainly good news.  What did accelerate, however, is that more of the alcohol sold was hard liquor.  It’s difficult to measure whether problematic drinking habits increased during the lockdown, but this is an indication that alcohol dependencies may have grown.

For cigarettes, sales increased somewhat during early lockdowns, but in fact decreased at various points during the pandemic compared to 2019.  This is also surprisingly good news, as many expected smokers to smoke more if they spent more time at home, where smoking isn’t as restricted as in public places.

Turning to excess body weight, it’s harder to get an idea of what’s happening, as it’s necessary to conduct surveys to ask people how their weight is doing.  So far information is only widely available for periods ending in late 2020.  There was a slight uptick during that year in the percentage of those under 34 who are overweight or obese.  The rates for other age groups held approximately steady over the same period.  It’s reassuring that this increase wasn’t more pronounced given how much easier it is to be sedentary when working from home.  Time will tell if over the long term less healthy habits settle into our routines.

Still, the overall story thus far is that physical health has held up quite well throughout the pandemic.  Looking at emotional health is a different story, the topic of next week’s column.

The Price of Gas

Ian Barrett

The recent hike in gas prices has been hitting household budgets hard.  It’s especially painful when we think that just a bit more than 2 years ago the price of oil actually went negative, with producers paying to have their oil taken off their hands.  The causes of this recent spike in prices were quite unpredictable, as a major driving factor is the war in Ukraine and the boycotting of Russian oil, which has in turn driven up the price of oil from alternative sources.

Still, this isn’t the first time we’ve been hit with sky-high gas prices.  In the past, the outcome was a transition to smaller cars.  Comparing the gigantic boats-on-wheels of the early 70s to an 80s k-car shows us the impacts of the spike in oil prices during the 1970s.  And the popularity of the Toyota Echo of the late 2000s was largely caused by the sharp increases in gas prices heading into the financial crisis.

Unlike then, however, we now have an alternative to traditional gas vehicles - electric cars.  It will be interesting to see how current gas prices impact the popularity of electric vehicles.  Quebecers in particular will have a major incentive to switch up, as electricity is quite cheap here compared to other provinces, at about half the cost of Ontario.

Those who choose to stick with traditional vehicles will likely downsize, as they have in the past.  Larger vehicles certainly have their advantages, especially during Canadian winters.  Yet they also present many problems.  Heavier cars wear out roads much faster, making a longstanding problem in Quebec even worse.  Taking a drive down Lucerne Boulevard shows you the impacts of our heavier SUVs and pick-ups.  Also, something less noticed is that larger vehicles create a dependency in areas outside of cities, as housing developments can be built with access roads that wouldn’t be practical for smaller cars, particularly during the winter.  Owners are then stuck with needing a large vehicle even when the price at the pump is breaking their budgets.  Larger cars also contribute to more traffic congestion as they take up more space.

Higher prices will make many of us re-evaluate whether we really need larger vehicles.  Yet even for those who do have such a need, large pick-up trucks and SUVs are increasingly available in electric options, allowing everyone at least some choice.  

In the end, there are also the environmental impacts of vehicles.  Regardless of the importance that any one person puts on reducing emissions, our governments have built their climate strategies on making fossil fuels more expensive so that people use less of them.  This was generally done with a carbon tax.  Of course, we didn’t expect the cost of gas to rise so quickly.  Yet in the end it will push us towards reducing our carbon footprints as gas weighs more heavily on our budgets.  We’re repeating an experience that our society has lived through several times already, but this time with more options at our disposal.  It’ll be interesting to see exactly how our habits adapt. 

Post-Pandemic Normal

Ian Barrett

During the pandemic, there were a number of changes to our lives that many thought would be permanent.  Yet old habits die hard, for better or for worse.

Many expected the pandemic to give a permanent boost to online shopping, accelerating a trend that was already well underway.  However, shoppers have been returning to in-person shopping quickly now that life is getting back to normal.  This is certainly good news for local merchants who feared they would no longer be able to compete with online retailers.  Yet few saw this coming.  Even Amazon, who had been so successful in predicting spending habits of society, doubled its workforce and added hundreds of new warehouses in anticipation of a permanent shift towards more online shopping.  This expansion served Amazon well during the height of lockdowns, when their business exploded.  But their plans were to continue scaling up for years to come.  Now surprised by falling demand, they’re having to cancel plans for new warehouse construction, and will not fill some vacant posts as workers leave over the coming year.

Also unexpected is that permanent telework isn’t becoming as widespread as many had anticipated.  Over the last two years, this was seen as an opportunity to allow certain workers to live farther from urban areas, offering alternatives to red-hot urban real estate markets and the chance to revitalize villages that have long seen an exodus of younger residents.  Yet now, many companies are requiring workers to come into the office at least a few days a week, including Google and Apple, champions of innovation.  These workers need to continue living relatively close to the office.

The idea of telemedicine also presented the opportunity to greatly expand access to health care, particularly in isolated regions.  This option will certainly remain to some extent, with areas like dermatology leading the way with a good selection of options for virtual consultations.  However, many doctors throughout the healthcare system are preferring to return to obligatory in-person consultations.  There are certainly benefits to being able to see a patient in person under some circumstances.  Yet it’s frustrating for patients needing a referral for a blood test to have to drive an hour to their doctor’s office and spend half an hour in the waiting room.

Staying home when sick was an early lesson of the pandemic.  Although the federal government is moving to introduce ten days of paid sick leave per year for those working under federal jurisdiction, this covers only about 10% of the Canadian workforce.  And few provinces have followed suit with the federal government.  British Columbia now offers 5 days of paid sick leave per year, yet Ontario recently rejected a proposal to introduce permanent paid sick leave, and Quebec still only offers two such days.  Allowing workers to stay home when sick without losing pay would help to curb the spread of germs for everyone, be it Covid or otherwise.

After having been through such a trying couple of years, hopefully we will retain improvements to society as well.

Ending Cigarette Addiction

Ian Barrett

One of the great success stories of public health in recent years has been the plummeting numbers of smokers in society.  In the 1960s almost half of the adult population smoked.  Today, it’s a bit more than 10%.

There have been a number of strategies that have led to such a great outcome.  Education certainly played a role.  As people learned more about how dangerous tobacco products are, they were more inclined to quit.  Tobacco taxes also helped motivate people to smoke less, as the habit became quite expensive over the years.  Over the last two decades it also became increasingly difficult to find places where smoking was permitted, as restaurants and bars banned indoor smoking as well as smoking on patios, and smoking rooms in offices disappeared.  Cigarette companies were also banned from advertising or sponsoring events, reducing their profiles and chances to promote smoking generally.

As smoking became ever more inconvenient, more people gave it up.  The introduction of vaping gave smokers a less harmful alternative to get the nicotine they craved.  Unfortunately, it became more questionable how beneficial vaping was for society as a whole as vaping companies pivoted to promoting their products to teenagers and began to addict a new generation to nicotine.

However, despite the effectiveness of all of these approaches, a powerful tool has never been used in Canada - reducing nicotine.  On the contrary, over the last 60 years, the amount of nicotine in cigarettes has increased substantially.  It’s risen by over 10% in a single decade.  This is hardly a coincidence.  Tobacco companies realize what keeps smokers coming back for more.  Instead of allowing tobacco companies to raise nicotine concentrations, our governments should have been mandating them to reduce it, at the very least getting it back to the levels of the 1960s, before people realized how dangerous cigarettes are and began to want to quit.

In the U.S., the government is finally heading down this route.  It will likely take years to implement as the tobacco companies use all of the legal tools at their disposal to stall these important new regulations, but at least we’re seeing progress.  It’s certainly not a done deal, as the Obama administration had also attempted this, before the new regulations were scrapped during the Trump presidency.  New Zealand is also taking a similar approach.  Canada can certainly follow suit, and legislation has already been passed limiting the concentration of nicotine in vaping products.

Tobacco companies argue that such an approach would actually encourage people to smoke more in order to get the nicotine they crave, as well as driving people to the black market for cigarettes.  Yet the counter argument is fairly simple: Lower nicotine concentrations slowly over time.  It would be difficult for smokers to notice reductions of 5% or even 10% per year, but over a decade the cumulative effect would substantially lower the difficulty for smokers to quit.  Since nicotine doesn’t give much of a high, moving to a nicotine free world is much easier than eliminating other drugs.  The only thing stopping us is inertia.

Happiness and Mental Health

Ian Barrett

Mental health has made great strides in the last decade, but in other ways, we’re still in the earliest stages of gaining a complete understanding of this complex issue.

Since the 1960s, depression has been thought of as often being a chemical imbalance, in particular low serotonin.  Various types of depression are almost certain to be caused by this, but there has been concern for a number of years that many psychiatrists may be oversimplifying the situation, and that antidepressants are being over-prescribed.  While some patients certainly require medication to treat their conditions, others may be able to trace the causes of their distress to particular events.  By simply masking the pain with prescriptions, the underlying root cause can go unaddressed.  Given that many people on antidepressants report a general feeling of numbness and an inability to feel positive as well as negative emotions, the life consequences of an inappropriate mental health diagnosis could be devastating.

Now more questions are being asked within the medical community.  More studies are showing that even with antidepressants, feelings of sadness and despair persist for notable proportions of patients.  The pharmaceutical industry has been heavily promoting medication-based approaches linked to serotonin since the 1990s, but evidence continues to emerge that depression is more complex, and its causes are more varied.  After more than two and half years of dealing with the pandemic, many people have seen their mental health deteriorate significantly.  Although some of these cases may have chemical roots, many others are caused by stress, isolation and the fear of contracting a deadly disease.  Compounding the problem, mental health resources have been operating far in excess of capacity since Covid emerged.  Due to the sheer volume of patients that mental health professionals need to assist, the urge to lean towards quick treatments involving medications is understandably strong.  Yet to truly address their problems, many patients will need to confront the underlying stress and fears that are driving their suffering.

Those feeling depressed should look to understand the causes of their emotional distress.  For those feeling severe anxiety about catching Covid, they could explore novel ways to socialize while feeling physically secure.  We should also educate ourselves on the relative risks of both the virus and our reactions to it given our age and health status.  For instance, in the case of children, the impacts of isolation and sedentary lifestyles can present far more of a danger than many people realize.  Regardless of what’s happening in the world, looking at what makes us unhappy and carefully planning out possible solutions can help us improve our satisfaction with life.  This could be as simple as taking up a new hobby that will allow us to make more friends, or as complex as changing careers or moving to another part of the world to force ourselves out of a rut.

Discoveries in mental health will continue for many years to come.  If as a society we give it the importance and resources it deserves, it will be time and money well spent.

Languages (1)

Ian Barrett

Languages are one of the most important components of culture.  Canada is fortunate to have two official languages, something which defines who we are as a nation.

Yet we all know that the two languages are not on equal footing.  Far more people speak English than French, and francophones have been fighting for centuries to preserve their language in a largely English continent.  

Over the last several weeks concerns have risen about results from the 2021 census showing fewer people identifying as francophone in Canada.  It’s imperative that as a society we protect the French language.  Yet it’s also important to pick strategies to maintain French that have the best chance of working.

A recent focus has been on the number of people in Québec speaking French at home, especially among immigrants.  Programs in Québec teaching immigrants French have been a major success story of the past several decades.  Yet looking at how many non-francophone immigrants end up speaking French to their families is not a good measure of how well immigrants are adapting to the local culture of Québec.  Immigrant parents want their children to speak their native languages as well, and so are highly likely to speak those languages when at home.  If an anglophone or francophone Canadian family were to move to, say, Germany, it’s unlikely that they’d start to speak German to their children.  They would almost certainly send their children to school in German, ensuring that they learn the local language and hence adapt to life in their new country, while also keeping the family’s native language as what they speak to each other.  Rules forcing immigrant children to attend school in French mean almost all become fluent in the language.  This is true even though they often continue to speak their native languages at home.

A much better measure of the vitality of French is the percentage of the population able to converse and work in the language.  This is the major success story of the last several decades in Québec, with the percentage of those able to converse in French significantly higher than 90%.

Attracting more francophone immigrants is also a clear priority for the Legault government.  Although some will come from Europe, there are generally not enough potential immigrants from that part of the world to meet the economic needs of the province and fill the skills gap Québec faces.  Hence a more francophone centric immigration policy will need to focus more on other French-speaking countries, the vast majority of which are in Africa.  Yet people from countries such as Algeria, Tunisia and Senegal often felt targeted by the secularism laws the Legault government passed over the last several years.  If the province wants to attract more francophones, care will need to be taken in crafting policies and communication approaches that make immigrants from these countries feel welcome.

There are no easy answers to maintaining the vitality of Canadian French in a globalized world.  At the very least we should approach the problem with the most realistic game plan possible.

Violence in Politics

Ian Barrett

During the current campaign, we’ve seen a rise in threats to our electoral candidates.  This is extremely worrying, first and foremost because our candidates are members of our community, and have the same right to feel safe as everyone else.  Secondly, because such hostile environments discourage many motivated and talented people from running for office.  Even more depressing, bullying and harassment of candidates are often aimed at women, which further complicates efforts to achieve more gender equity among our elected officials.

Although more attention is being given to this problem now than in the recent past, violence against politicians is nothing new.  The U.S. has many famous examples of assassinations going back throughout its history, from Lincoln to John and Robert Kennedy.  Ronald Reagan was shot in the 1980s.  More recently, lower profile (and less protected) politicians such as Gabby Giffords in 2011 and Steve Scalise in 2017 were also shot while in public.

Although Canada is in general less violent than the U.S., we have certainly not been immune.  The most famous terrorist attacks were likely those of the FLQ in the 1960s and 1970s.  But our history has been checkered with other examples as well.  Many were ethnic based, such as the assassination of Thomas D’Arcy McGee by Irish nationalists in the 19th century.  Other political movements have been mostly forgotten, but Canadian anti-materialist movements set off bombs throughout the 20th century which resulted in several casualties in the 1920s.  Anarchist movements were responsible for a series of killings and terrorist attacks globally throughout the 20th century, but luckily Canada was largely spared.  Perhaps the most disturbing example of political violence in our recent history was the attempted assassination of Pauline Marois in 2012, where a technician was killed.

All of this is to say that verbal and physical violence towards our political representatives is, tragically, longstanding.  Many have blamed social media for the rise in nasty behaviour over the last decade, and it’s certainly true that it fans the flames of deranged behaviour.  Yet looking over history, social media on its own doesn’t explain political violence.

There are no easy answers, or we would likely have solved this problem long ago.  But there are certainly strategies to improve the situation.  The most obvious is to condemn divisive behaviour by both voters and politicians.  For those running for office, engaging in nasty and provocative public discourse can be a tempting approach, as it is more likely to draw attention and attract enthusiastic supporters.  Yet the price paid by society is very high.  During the last two years of the pandemic, tempers were often at a fever pitch, and we’ve seen those frustrations spilling over into campaigns as well.  Still, exercising restraint on all sides would make us all better off.  We’re very fortunate that we haven’t had a political assassination in Canada since the 1960s.  Encouraging civil public discourse can help ensure that we keep it that way.  And an excellent start is to punish candidates who take the low road by not voting for them.

Political Heft 

Ian Barrett


Watching the current electoral campaign in Quebec, it’s quite remarkable how much the political landscape has changed.  Whereas in years past the central question was Quebec’s place in Canada, the conversation has now shifted to the vitality of French and cultural mores in general.  Although part of this shift was certainly organic, as the people of Quebec tired of endless debates about referendums, François Legault proved very apt at measuring the pulse of the population.  Incredibly, even potential pandemic responses have been largely eclipsed by cultural issues.  Given that the past three winters have been heavily impacted by the pandemic and the ensuing health regulations, that Covid death rates are higher now than they were at this time last year, and that we have no guarantee that Covid won’t have our hospitals on the brink of collapse throughout the winter, the complete absence of this topic during the campaign speaks to Mr. Legault’s remarkable skills at shaping the debate.

His personal prowess in this area aside, something that works significantly in his favour is that his party is completely unified behind him.  This is natural, because he created the CAQ.  Other premieres have not been so lucky.  Most notorious is the history of the Parti Québecois, caught up in seemingly endless infighting since shortly after its creation in the 1970s.

Generally, leaders of major parties have a very hard time surviving electoral defeat.  Mr. Legault was able to do so when his party was small and appealed to a relatively small slice of the electorate.  Yet no leader of a major party has survived electoral defeat in Quebec since Jean Charest in 1998, when he won the popular vote but where the PQ managed to form a majority government, one of the strangest outcomes in Canada’s electoral history.  Whether Mr. Legault will still find his party unified behind him should his popularity fall is anyone’s guess.

The same dynamics tend to play out at the municipal and federal levels.  Maxime Pedneaud-Jobin created the first and only municipal party that Gatineau has seen, and had firm control of it until he decided to retire from politics.  In Montreal leaders of municipal parties tend to lose their jobs after an electoral defeat.  On the federal level the same pattern has held.  Recently Pierre Poilievre won the conservative leadership as the first choice of 70% of party members who cast a vote, equaling the score of Stephen Harper in 2003 and approaching the near 80% that Justin Trudeau received in the Liberal Party leadership campaign of 2013.  Such a score enabled Stephen Harper to survive electoral defeat in 2004 and go on to win a minority government in 2006.  Justin Trudeau has also had the opportunity to reshape his party and govern without significant internal bickering, something that no Liberal leader had benefited from since his father more than thirty years earlier.  Exactly how much Pierre Poilievre will be able to reshape his party, and whether he will get a second chance should he lose the next election, is an open question.

Dairy Prices

Ian Barrett

In a year of high inflation, the price of dairy has been among the fastest rising at the supermarket.  Milk prices rose by around 20% in six months.  Although many families don’t drink enough dairy for this to significantly impact budgets, restaurants have been feeling the pinch at a time when labour shortages already have many owners reeling.  

Canadians already pay among the highest prices in the world for dairy.  On average, a litre of milk costs twice the price as in the U.S., and over 50% more than in the U.K., France and Australia.  The reason for high prices in Canada is a system called supply management, where the number of producers is tightly controlled and Canadian farmers have much more influence in setting prices compared to those in competitive markets elsewhere in the world.  In return, dairy farmers receive fewer subsidies and grants from the government than in other countries. 

While Canadian consumers frequently grumble about the prices of milk and cheese, even farmers complain that supply management isn’t working.  Many dairy farms are small and haven’t been able to innovate to reduce costs, meaning profits for many farm owners are low and the work is hard.  Licences to milk a cow, which were granted for free in the 1970s, now fetch upwards of $24,000 per cow, making many farmers well off on paper, but only able to cash in when they exit the industry.  This also makes it very hard for younger generations to get a start in dairy farming, as well as current dairy farmers looking to take advantage of economies of scale by increasing the size of their operations.

Prices are set in a very opaque way by the Canadian Dairy Commission.  They use a survey of roughly 200 farmers in which they give information on their costs, much of which is considered confidential and not shared with the public.  At a time when dairy price hikes far exceed inflation elsewhere, transparency should be of the utmost importance.

Farmers are also required to make mandatory contributions to marketing funds which are used to advertise dairy products, but again there is little transparency.  The Toronto Maple Leafs will sport a “milk” patch on their jerseys for the next couple of years, but the costs of this deal have not been shared even with dairy farmers.  We do know that tens of millions of dollars are spent on marketing dairy products each year.

Also unclear is how grocery stores set price increases on their end.  Over the last year, supermarkets have increased dairy prices by twice the amount mandated by the Canadian Dairy Commission.

With so few happy with the status quo, changes would certainly be welcome.  Helping more dairy farmers to innovate and invest in robotics to milk cows instead of using manual labour would help reduce costs over the long term, along with justification for raising prices.  The question is why dairy can’t exist in a similar system as the rest of agriculture, with subsidies instead of high prices.

Environmental Policies

Ian Barrett

Many environmental policies have been designed over the years to better safeguard our environment, including better fuel efficiency standards for vehicles and banning many forms of plastic.  These policies have often done tremendous good for both our environment and our health.  Smelling the fumes of cars that are 30 or more years old tells us how much vehicle emission standards have done to give us clean air to breathe.  It’s hard for younger generations to imagine what it smelled like walking along a busy street in the 1970s.

Yet there have also been failures in our attempts to regulate pollution.  In the late 2000s and early 2010s, the Obama administration wanted to significantly tighten emission standards over the following 15 years.  Yet the motor vehicle industry complained that such standards would make it impossible to sell larger vehicles without incurring losses, and that these vehicles were necessary for people in rural areas or who work in construction.  As a compromise, it was agreed that larger vehicles would have less stringent requirements in terms of vehicle emission standards.  Yet the effects of this exception were perverse - it created a significant incentive for car manufacturers to focus on selling ever larger vehicles, as traditional cars required pricey new technologies to reduce emissions.  This made larger vehicles comparatively cheap.  The result was that the share of vehicles sold which were pick-ups and SUVs shot up sharply over the last decade, and overall reductions in total vehicle emissions since the more stringent rules were put in place have been mostly flat for several years.  

Another front in our drive to reduce our societies’ environmental impact is plastics.  This impacts us in many different ways, some more noticeable than others. Plastic straws will soon be largely illegal, leading restaurants and cafes to roll out alternatives, from cardboard straws to metal variants.  Disposable plastic bags will also be phased out in the near future.  When these individual measures are taken together the potential benefits are significant, but to optimize the results a variety of factors need to be considered.  Switching to non-disposable bags can seem like a positive way forward, but these types of bags need to be used many times to produce net benefits for the environment.  Of critical importance is the technology used to produce them.  Early cotton non-disposable bags had to be used thousands of times to have less impact than the equivalent number of disposable bags they were meant to replace.  Advances in technology have brought that number down to about a dozen for the current non-disposable variety.  Further improvements to the manufacturing process will be needed if people tend to forget their bags at home and pick up new non-disposable ones frequently at stores or supermarkets. 

In the end, the best approach is reducing our use of all types of disposable materials whenever possible.  An excellent starting point is packaging, something that offers comparatively little added value.  Biodegradable packaging could go much farther towards reducing waste than many other approaches that we’ve considered so far.  

n-disposable bags can seem like a positive way forward, but these types of bags need to be used many times to produce net benefits for the environment.  Of critical importance is the technology used to produce them.  Early cotton non-disposable bags had to be used thousands of times to have less impact than the equivalent number of disposable bags they were meant to replace.  Advances in technology have brought that number down to about a dozen for the current non-disposable variety.  Further improvements to the manufacturing process will be needed if people tend to forget their bags at home and pick up new non-disposable ones frequently at stores or supermarkets. 

In the end, the best approach is reducing our use of all types of disposable materials whenever possible.  An excellent starting point is packaging, something that offers comparatively little added value.  Biodegradable packaging could go much farther towards reducing waste than many other approaches that we’ve considered so far.  

Cybersecurity 

Ian Barrett

How companies handle our data was for many years quite lax.  Examples like the Desjardins data leak, which resulted in the social insurance numbers and other personal details of a large majority of Quebecers ending up on the dark web, as well as a similar situation faced by Americans due to the Equifax leak, showed this quite clearly.  The Equifax leak was the most galling imaginable, as at least with Desjardins people had chosen to do business with them and afterwards could show their disapproval by taking their business elsewhere.  With Equifax, as soon as we request credit from any financial institution we automatically have a file there, and have no option to stop doing business with them afterwards.

The most common reason for these leaks was that every customer’s complete information was contained in a single set of files that was stolen with a single USB device.  The idea that this could be possible is quite stunning.  Yet now we see things swinging to the other extreme, as security becomes onerous and at times excessive.

Certain accounts clearly need strong security, such as bank accounts and accounts with the government, specifically the Canada Revenue Agency and Revenue Quebec.  Other organizations may be taking things a bit far given the importance of the data they hold.  In the end, if passwords become complicated to the point that no one can remember them, especially for accounts we access very infrequently, many people end up writing down the passwords on a piece of paper and keeping it in their drawers.  At that point, it’s hard to see how information is more secure.

Two-stage authentication is becoming more popular and offers an interesting alternative, using a phone number or tying authentication to a particular device.  However, there are problems here too.  For phone numbers, many of us don’t use our domestic numbers when travelling internationally, given the high cost of roaming fees.  If, when outside the country, you’re asked to receive a text message on your Canadian number to access your banking information or email account, you’ll need to figure out how to access that Canadian number and pay corresponding roaming fees.

When access requires validation on a specific device or phone number, you’re also vulnerable to that device dying or being lost.  Worse still, theft of your phone becomes quite devastating.  Finding yourself unable to access your personal information or banking until you’ve been able to reach customer service to update your security options can leave you in a very difficult position.

We need a balance between personal security and ease of use.  Reasonable password requirements, with numbers and capitalizations, combined with personal questions afterward are sufficient for most accounts for most people.  Although banks need strong security, they have been dealing with credit card fraud for decades.  They should be able to obtain insurance to fill the gap between risks of fraudulent activity and making life overly frustrating for their customers, finding a good balance.  Zero risk doesn’t exist, for online access or anything else in life.

Political Heft

Ian Barrett

Watching the current electoral campaign in Quebec, it’s quite remarkable how much the political landscape has changed.  Whereas in years past the central question was Quebec’s place in Canada, the conversation has now shifted to the vitality of French and cultural mores in general.  Although part of this shift was certainly organic, as the people of Quebec tired of endless debates about referendums, François Legault proved very apt at measuring the pulse of the population.  Incredibly, even potential pandemic responses have been largely eclipsed by cultural issues.  Given that the past three winters have been heavily impacted by the pandemic and the ensuing health regulations, that Covid death rates are higher now than they were at this time last year, and that we have no guarantee that Covid won’t have our hospitals on the brink of collapse throughout the winter, the complete absence of this topic during the campaign speaks to Mr. Legault’s remarkable skills at shaping the debate.

His personal prowess in this area aside, something that works significantly in his favour is that his party is completely unified behind him.  This is natural, because he created the CAQ.  Other premieres have not been so lucky.  Most notorious is the history of the Parti Québecois, caught up in seemingly endless infighting since shortly after its creation in the 1970s.

Generally, leaders of major parties have a very hard time surviving electoral defeat.  Mr. Legault was able to do so when his party was small and appealed to a relatively small slice of the electorate.  Yet no leader of a major party has survived electoral defeat in Quebec since Jean Charest in 1998, when he won the popular vote but where the PQ managed to form a majority government, one of the strangest outcomes in Canada’s electoral history.  Whether Mr. Legault will still find his party unified behind him should his popularity fall is anyone’s guess.

The same dynamics tend to play out at the municipal and federal levels.  Maxime Pedneaud-Jobin created the first and only municipal party that Gatineau has seen, and had firm control of it until he decided to retire from politics.  In Montreal leaders of municipal parties tend to lose their jobs after an electoral defeat.  On the federal level the same pattern has held.  Recently Pierre Poilievre won the conservative leadership as the first choice of 70% of party members who cast a vote, equaling the score of Stephen Harper in 2003 and approaching the near 80% that Justin Trudeau received in the Liberal Party leadership campaign of 2013.  Such a score enabled Stephen Harper to survive electoral defeat in 2004 and go on to win a minority government in 2006.  Justin Trudeau has also had the opportunity to reshape his party and govern without significant internal bickering, something that no Liberal leader had benefited from since his father more than thirty years earlier.  Exactly how much Pierre Poilievre will be able to reshape his party, and whether he will get a second chance should he lose the next election, is an open question.

Ian Barrett